New Eden is gearing up for war again with the recent announcement that several major Russian alliances have banded together to form a single coalition with the goal of destroying or displacing Fraternity (FRT) from the galactic southeast. As is usually the case, this war will not be limited to “Russia versus Fraternity;” other interested parties from around the galaxy, with their own goals and motivations, will likely pile on.
So just who are the major players likely to be in this complicated situation?
Russian Coalition
Members: Red Menace Coalition, Legion of Death, RAZOR Alliance
Likelihood of full-scale deployment: 100%
With Red Menace and XIX spearheading this conflict together, we are seeing an historic moment in EVE Online. For a large number of years, the Russian playerbase has been splintered as a result of old grudges and a persisting schism. When this unexpected, and as-yet-unnamed, alliance combines these groups, and with both looking for more permanent homes – RMC having just left Period Basis, and XIX having been growing their strength in Catch, secured by LegacyCo – it would be a poor time for anyone in the South-East to be lax in securing their space. That said, our information suggests that XIX cannot engage in a major campaign until the LegacyCo NIP with WinterCo ends in roughly two weeks, giving savvy defenders time to prepare.
Winter Coalition
Members: Fraternity., STARCHASER Alliance
Likelihood of full-scale deployment: 100%
Winter Coalition, led by Fraternity, are a group of players who began their journey on Tranquility only eighteen months or so ago, when a significant group of players migrated from Serenity. In the intervening time, they have largely gone from strength to strength, though they bit off slightly more than they could chew over the summer of 2018. In the last major conflict Winter Coalition engaged with, they fought alongside Pandemic Legion, the Holy Rental Empire, and Triumvirate in an attempt to bring Legacy Coalition to their knees. While they failed in their overall objective, they secured a Non-Invasion Pact with LegacyCo which will end in the next few weeks, and have used the time to build their combat capabilities, as their recent assassination of a Legacy Komodo shows.
Legacy Coalition
Members: Test Alliance Please Ignore (TEST), Brave Collective, Evictus, Requiem Eternal, Many Others
Likelihood of full-scale deployment: Extremely High
On which side: Russians
Legacy and Fraternity have a long history of hostilities, and spent most of 2018 at each other’s throats. The fighting was mostly one-sided, with Legacy winning handily in three different campaigns: one in the spring, another during the summer war, and a third immediately after the summer war was over. The two sides are still fighting to this day, and it’s hard to imagine that Legacy will not jump at the chance to continue brutalizing FRT.
Pandemic Family
Members: Pandemic Horde (Horde), Pandemic Legion (PL), Northern Coalition., others
Likelihood of full-scale deployment: Very high
On which side: FRT
Like Legacy and Fraternity, Horde and TEST have already been engaged in hostilities for several months. TEST’s decision to drop a Keepstar in the high-sec system of Perimeter, next door to Jita, disrupted the substantial amount of income Horde had been making from their uncontested monopoly of Perimeter trading. The two groups have been fighting for approximately four months, and although the war started out with TEST welping two significant dreadnought fleets, the ISK losses between the sides are nearly identical now. Horde will almost certainly seize this opportunity for a wider-scale campaign against TEST, although it is possible PanFam may not get involved at first and may instead wait until TEST is fully committed against FRT before launching a surprise attack.
Holy Rental Empire
Members: skill urself, Circle of Hell, Others
Likelihood of full-scale deployment: Extremely High
On which side: Probably FRT
Most of the alliances that formed the HRE are PvP specialist alliances, which is why their income stream is renting out space rather than farming it themselves. Because of this, they are almost certain to be involved – at least in some form – in any fight that happens on their back doorstep. This may involve taking a side, or it may involve third-partying a different group every day. Notably, skill urself have a long history with Pandemic Horde, and may get involved against TEST as a result. The HRE will have to carefully decide to what extent they want to be involved, or they risk losing large amounts of their own territory to furious Russians and residents of Tenerifis hungry for more space.
The Imperium
Members: Goonswarm Federation, The Initiative, TNT, Bastion, LAWN
Likelihood of full-scale deployment: Unlikely
On which side: Unknown
At present, it is impossible to tell in what capacity the Imperium will choose to become involved, or if they will even bother with the conflict to their East. The Imperium does not have much to gain from seeing FRT defeated, nor does it have much stake in the outcome if FRT + Horde + HRE end up defeating the Russians and Legacy. Given that the Imperium partnered with Legacy in last summer’s War of Reckoning, if the Imperium gets involved at all, one would expect it to be on the side of the Russians against FRT. However, it’s also possible the Imperium would decide they do not want to see Legacy get too powerful, and may take this opportunity to knock Legacy down a peg and ensure that the Imperium remains New Eden’s dominant power. Given the amount of conflict between Goonswarm and TEST in Goonswarm’s newly acquired Period Basis region, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Goonswarm may third party against TEST and the rest of Legacy. With all that said, the Imperium has a long-standing relationship with Red Menace Coalition, who may call in old friends to aid them. Imperium leadership have yet to make an official statement on the issue, so only time will tell what they will choose to do.
What do you think, readers? Are there other parties you expect to see involved in the fighting, or do you agree/disagree about the likelihood of any of these parties joining the war or which side they will join on?
[Editor’s note: An earlier version of this article referred to RAZOR Alliance as an independent entity. However, INN has confirmed that they are members of the Russian coalition, and the article has been updated.]
