Legacy SOTA: Math and Maps


Art by Quendan Comari

In a stunning display of waffling, TEST military directors Progodlegend (PGL) and Vily held a brief state of the alliance (SOTA) meeting earlier today in which Vily said the chances of their forces winning the war with the Imperium were a “coin flip.” Coin flips are also known as 50-50 odds, but odds aren’t the same as probability and this is where Legacy’s math gets a little shaky.

Move Ops and Credit Cards

The purpose of the SOTA was to announce another move op in preparation for “attacking the biggest empire in this game,” Vily said, before appearing to ask his line members to pull out their wallets. He lauded his members’ “courage and fortitude [to] be ready to take that fight” and “to commit your thousands of dollars in assets.”

The move op will muster all of Legacy and its allies’ forces into Querious for a final push that PGL said would take between two to four months. “Today is when the real invasion starts and this is going to be pretty fucking epic,” he said, and claimed to have brought together “probably the largest coalition this game has ever seen, and we’re probably going to need it.”

They’re probably going to need it because the Imperium has “a lot” in Delve,” he added. “They have quite a massive force; they’ve called (sic) the Horn of Goondor. They are going to make their final stand and they aren’t going to hold anything back. It’s going to get very bloody very quickly.”

Math and Maps Are Hard

But back to the coin toss. Of the total strategic fights fought in the war, to date, the Imperium has won 60.1% of them. Probabilities aren’t coin tosses, so it’s probable that Vily’s odds are stacked against him.

Of total strategic fights to date, the Imperium has won 60.1% of them

Onto the maps. “We’ve surrounded them – we attacked all their regions at once, we destroyed their salients, and now we have them encircled,” PGL said, despite the facts on the ground telling a different story. Of the three regions that surround Delve (Fountain, Querious and Period Basis), enemy forces have sovereignty dominance in only one of the three, and given the amount of territory taken back by Imperium forces over the past few days, a sliver of one-third might be a smidge too high.

Along with the math problem, PGL’s use of the military term “salient,” while surely impressive to his loyal listeners, also misconstrues its meaning. A salient is a “battlefield feature that projects into enemy territory. The salient is surrounded by the enemy on multiple sides, making the troops occupying the salient vulnerable.” So far, Legacy has yet to occupy any Imperium territory for more than a few hours, holds no territory in Delve, and can’t seem to get a presence in NPC Delve either. Indeed, aside from its sov-taking woes, its most recent foray into NPC Delve ended poorly, too.

Enemy forces hold less than one-third of the systems in the three regions surrounding Delve, and their sov efforts continue to implode by the hour (Maps courtesy DOTLAN)

In conclusion, PGL told his line members, that “we cannot lose as long as we execute properly. We’ve got the numbers; we’ve got the titans; we’ve got the dreads, the FCs. Goons have the advantage of defensive game mechanics, but otherwise this war is ours to lose, and we’re not going to lose it.”

He said, “Over the next few months, we are going to invade Querious and Delve and destroy everything Goons have built.”

Maybe. The odds are even, but it’s not probable.

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  • Garreth Vlox

    How do you have a coin flip chance of winning with a close to 3:1 numerical advantage and a cornered opponent?

    September 20, 2020 at 4:41 AM
    • Moomin Amatin Garreth Vlox

      By talking a good game while knowing you cannot deliver.

      September 20, 2020 at 11:11 AM
  • Simon Chui

    Don’t tell PGL because I want to see him faceplant, but the way you’re supposed to deal with a salient is you encircle them, block their escape routes, then destroy them. You’re not supposed to let their people and materiel escape intact. Plenty of well recorded examples in WW2.

    Also, when PAPI push through Querious into Delve, they’ll put themselves into a salient. Wink wink hint hint, you know what to do then.

    September 20, 2020 at 6:33 AM
    • Moomin Amatin Simon Chui

      I thnk you just let the cat out of the bag! 🙂

      September 20, 2020 at 11:13 AM
      • Simon Chui Moomin Amatin

        And PAPI let Initiative out of Fountain, so I guess mistakes were made on both sides. 😀

        September 20, 2020 at 1:06 PM
    • Noob Simon Chui

      There was a reason the Falise gap was not closed.

      September 20, 2020 at 11:32 AM
  • Moomin Amatin

    Nothing says “winning” more than holding an emergency SotA to state that the thing you have said you have been doing for 3 months is now really going to start happening.

    This tat about the topology to me is nonsense in the main, especially once you are in Delve. Some people are play general and others are believing them.

    September 20, 2020 at 11:10 AM
  • Noob

    Coin tosses are probabilities.

    September 20, 2020 at 11:31 AM
  • hanabal

    Problem is for papi once a big fight starts in delve we just gonna keep coming and coming and coming with more and more dreads and subcap till all your shit is dead the line members have multiple spare dreads and subcaps and we gonna be fighting on keepstars and we not gonna stop fighting you saw yourself on ti’s that delve has the highest building index for the last 2 months have a wild guess what we building and we are building a lot of them folks villy was right this is gonna get very bloody and the alliances that haven’t got the wealth of goons and test ect are gonna find that out the hard way and it’s gonna be glorious

    September 20, 2020 at 12:54 PM
  • Caleb Ayrania

    Since Vily quoted “300” in the SOTA, wrongly I might add, since Papi can in no way be construed as the underdog in current numbers, I will just remind him that he is NOT Leonidas, and him and his Persian forces are in a very similar situation to the historical Persians in general. Papi you will bleed at the gates of Thermopylae, you will bleed at Artemisium, and chances are high you will finally bleed on the fields of Plataea. 🙂

    September 20, 2020 at 2:10 PM
  • Seir Luciel

    “Of the total strategic fights to date, the Imperium has won 60.1% percent of them.”

    What counts as strategic? What is the methodology you are using to generate this statistic?

    Regarding the “coin flip” statement made by Vily: I have elsewhere critiqued Vily’s public speaking and rhetoric. I recon Vily didn’t know he was going to say “coin flip” until it was already half out of his mouth. I wouldn’t read into it so much. Big picture, Vily is attempting to express his usual confidence, and that PAPI is moving towards the next stage in the war. While I have been hard on Vily’s speaking, I have not made any judgements on his strategic or military abilities. I’m just gonna wait to see how things play out. And honestly I’m pretty excited. I mean, come on Goons. You know you’re excited too. Clearly hanabal is psyched up. No matter what happens, its gonna be history. (But I wanna see 1DQ Theta Star go up before the end.).

    September 21, 2020 at 4:24 PM
    • Garreth Vlox Seir Luciel

      “Vily is attempting to express his usual confidence, ”
      Most people don’t express confidence by likening their odds to a 50/50 coin flip. That is in fact the opposite of confidence.

      September 21, 2020 at 10:39 PM
    • Rammel Kas Seir Luciel

      We actually keep an itemized fight tracker over objectives, since a few groups have taken to blocking Zkill and other 3’rd party metrics. And you kind of need to see the real data to plan. TEST have been trying a guerilla hack & pos drop the past few weeks and they have fairly consistently lost objectives, often feeding into a gate camp at the same time. Usually they run when they have lost the logistics wing. At the same time NSH have tried very badly to influence the Sakht and NPC pocket vectors, with similar results and losses. (NSH do in point of fact actively block zkillboard feed so if you ever fight them remember to manually upload the kills. They are actually quite shit.) This is why Legacy were so sold on the idea of moving the long way around via keepstars to eventually half-circle back to north Querious. So if the overall figure looks a bit unfamiliar to your experience from Fountain that’s where it’s been. It’s not that they did not try. They have just had an extremely rough time of it.

      September 22, 2020 at 10:00 AM
    • George Ewing Seir Luciel

      You might be surprised at the data we (INN) keep about the war. The author of the weekly roundup has compiled an enormous database and refers to it each week when compiling numbers.

      September 22, 2020 at 1:17 PM