Fraternity Fires on AoM

2021-04-21

Header art by Cryo Huren

Over the past weekend, PAPI members Fraternity [FRT] and Army of Mangos [AoM] clashed and shot each other, despite both organizations being allied together in PAPI.  Here’s the battle report. Analyzing the BR, we see a mixture of PAPI members, FIRE coalition, INIT, and a host of other entities. The battle involved close to 1,000 pilots and over 114 billion ISK was lost, but much of that carnage happened when PAPI members fired on each other. AoM, the Legion of xXDEATHXx, and assorted allies, lost over 83 billion ISK when the dust settled.

The erstwhile strat op was a fight over an Ansiblex jump bridge in NX5W-U, but clearly once in Feythabolis, FRT decided that their strategic objective could be met while also killing AoM. Since AoM were primarily in Nightmares, many other PAPI-affiliated groups piled on and also fired on each other. AoM was soundly soundly beaten, though the Ansiblex bridge was also lost.

The location of the battle is particularly interesting, as we have seen a number of changes to system ownership in the region of late. This latest move, by FRT and FIRE, has been to secure space previously held by the rental group Invidiae Gloriae Comes, formerly a part of LegacyCo. If this seems confusing, given that FRT, FIRE, and LegacyCo are all in PAPI, let me try to explain a bit better.

A Larger Context

The battle makes more sense when placed in a larger context that goes beyond the framework of WWB. The tensions between AoM and FRT have been well described, ever since those two groups arrived on the Tranquility server. On the Serenity server, AoM and FRT were effectively the “winners” of the server with regard to nullsec. They created a de facto blue donut, with arranged fights only, and always with agreed costs being authorized. There is far more to this story, and luckily for you, it is told very well here.

The current leader of FRT is Noraus, an interesting character who is a frequent guest on a number of EVE-related shows. Noraus has (supposedly) only ever played on Tranquility. Noraus spent some time in NC.’s Destructive Influence [DICE.], and while there, he appears to have developed a good working relationship with NC.’s leader, Vince Draken. Either way, FRT has always tended to be friendly toward PanFam, for reasons that reach back to their earliest history.

AoM has had a completely different experience coming to Tranquility. With FRT already having long and storied relationships established, the options available to AoM were more limited. However, they did not want to work with FRT. Rather, they gravitated toward working with one-time enemies of PanFam and FRT, Legacy Coalition. Relationships between LegacyCo and AoM were further improved when LegacyCo was at war with FRT in 2019. As actions define organizations, we can safely say that AoM are very much aligned with the interests of LegacyCo at this time.

When Former Enemies Become Allies

Since the start of World War Bee ten months ago, we have seen both AoM and FRT make incursions into each other’s space, and they have never set each other as “blue.” These incursions have reportedly been perpetrated by both sides, and both sides have claimed wrongdoing on the part of the other. Generally, this animosity has been via proxy agents and cloaky campers. On the front lines, the disdain each group had for each other was more than apparent. Often they would take pot shots at each other, and local chat seemed to get quite heated between the two.

In order to de-escalate tensions between AoM and Frat, other PAPI leaders have been silent when both groups became less focused on the front lines in Delve, even though that is where Goons are based. Indeed, AoM were sent back from the front lines towards the end of 2020, ostensibly to provide a rear-guard action. They were sent to protect the eastern regions controlled by Legacy Coalition, back when LegacyCo still claimed to control all their former holdings, as well as Fountain, Delve, Querious, and Period Basis. FRT, meanwhile, returned to the north to establish a new home region and suppress the usurpers, primarily the Freemen of the North, who were upsetting FRT’s rental operations.

PAPI leadership has finessed these moves and has stated that FRT and AoM haven’t been much involved in WWB due to time zone differences. Further, both FRT and AoM leadership have said that they are committed to PAPI until the end of the war. Clearly, though, this present war is not their only concern.

Positioning for the Next War

No matter what occurs in the future regarding WWB, AoM are suffering losses in this war, as evidenced by this recent friendly fire incident. FIRE may have won the strat op event, but AoM paid for it. This outcome may give AoM pause for thought. They are (or should be) watching FRT grow stronger and stronger. History is replete with examples of groups that watched former enemies grow strong, hoping for a good outcome. In almost every case, “appeasement” did not end well.

Of course, Delve and World War Bee are still very much of interest to Frat and AoM. Both have a vested interest in being successful in their respective land grabs. But FRT, at the very least, seem to feel they are in a strong enough position to announce their plans to their membership. This is quite the move, given the current state of World War Bee. 

While the above-referenced document is in Chinese, and the Google translation leaves a lot to be desired, we can parse some things from it.  First, FRT feels comfortable with its position vis-à-vis WWB. Noraus notes he hasn’t been to high level meetings lately, but that the impending strike on 1DQ “Maybe . . . the last climax of the war? I think it’s still far away but I don’t care. . . . WWB2 is not our only consideration and content.” That last bit is the important part.

Noraus, and FRT in general, are clearly thinking beyond the end of this war. They are positioning themselves for the new EVE after this war ends. Also, from the maps included in FRT’s plans, you can see that Frat has an interest in areas other than Delve. No matter what Google does to the translation, we can’t miss that Esoteria is circled in red and, as Noraus notes, “People in the red circles should be careful about FRT.”

Is the “next war” already being fought?

It will be interesting to see if the hostilities between Frat and AoM continue to escalate. We can speculate regarding the causes of the 100+ billion loss in Feythbolis. Perhaps restless pilots, bored with structure bashes, wanted something more interesting to do and thought, “Hey, let’s shoot these guys that we were shooting in 2019. That’s better content!”

Perhaps, we are seeing that as this war winds very slowly down, the conflicting interests of PanDaFam, FIRE, FRT, and LegacyCo become more obvious. Perhaps more senior PAPI leadership will step in and demand that the respective parties behave themselves. Perhaps, the kids will be left to create havok.

Regardless, stay tuned to INN for all the latest news in New Eden.

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Comments

  • William Doe

    Well there you go. Now I’d love for Norhaus to take the Goon stance of “TEST is next”. Seems like this is just the beginning of FRAT heading south and sticking around to beat up on some Legacy allies and taking their space to expand their rental empire.

    April 21, 2021 at 11:50 AM
  • Guilford Australis

    I’ve listened to many interviews with Noraus over the years, and he’s definitely a smart alliance leader. But he doesn’t seem to have the raw ambition of others like The Mittani, Gobbins, and PGL/Vily. He surrendered to Legacy in their war over Detorid because he was tired of seeing his line members getting crapped on by TEST through their usual fleet-invite scams (TEST is nothing if not simple and predictable) and other chicanery, not necessarily because he thought FRT was defeated.

    So that leads me to believe that Noraus might not be as inclined as people assume to press the advantage of having FRT away from the front lines, growing stronger in new territory while eliminating surrounding opponents, while their nominal allies in PAPI are off throwing their titans away on Gobbins’ vanity project so that TEST can live in Delve. Maybe I’m reading Noraus wrong, but I really don’t think he’d turn on any of his current allies. I think he believes it’s best to be allies with as many large groups as possible to avoid the fate of alliances like Co2, FCON, BoB, and even coalitions, such as GOTG/DeadCo.

    I simply don’t see FRT turning on TEST or PanFam. Noraus is already on the record saying PAPI “will be around a lot longer than people think.” The AoM rivalry is mainly cultural, not strategic, so I hesitate to view that as a weathervane for FRT’s future plans to oppose anyone else in PAPI.

    April 21, 2021 at 1:43 PM
    • William Doe Guilford Australis

      I agree with the sentiment FRT won’t turn on PanFam (probably not ever unless they’ve become super bored and super wealthy where they’d start a ‘war’ with PanFam for content), but maybe if FRT had the support of PanFam to turn on TEST, then that is more likely to happen realistically. It would be an interesting set of events if it went that way after this war because it’d be the dissolution of PAPI’s Blue Donut and the rise of PanDaFam’s blue donut.

      That translated set of plans by Norhaus did warn for whoever’s in Esoteria to be “careful of FRT”, and who resides there? TEST. I still think even if he hasn’t revealed it publicly, Norhaus does want to mess TEST up, but only after eradicating AoM first. But that’s just wishful thinking on my end.

      April 22, 2021 at 12:22 AM
      • Moomin Amatin William Doe

        Thinking in terms of PanDaFam I think is the right call. Frat will work with the rest of PanFam on larger strategic goals. So now the question I have is does PanDaFam care about Legacy given that Legacy wanted The Imperium to go to war against them? I mean PanDaFam get to expand their holdings greatly, subdue FIRE, watch Legacy kill themselves and see The Imperium greatly weakened at least in economic terms.

        To expand on that a bit further, Frat can go for AoM and there is very little that Legacy can do or PanFam will need to do. This time Legacy will not have The Imperium to save their capital fleet.

        The bit I am finding interesting though is that Omist is still fully under AoM control despite them moving out of there to Esoteria about a month ago (at least part of their super capital forces). The ratting numbers are down from 6 months ago but still signs of people living there. Time will tell I guess.

        April 22, 2021 at 8:08 AM
  • Dripple

    But… but… the eternal blue donut “sniff”, there will be no wars without goons, “sniff sniff” Serenity v2, “Panfam must leave, they must.

    April 21, 2021 at 2:35 PM
    • Guilford Australis Dripple

      You’re the only one sniffing here, son. And quite bizarrely.

      PAPI has stated repeatedly that eliminating Goons is the war objective. Noraus has clarified that “PAPI will be around for a lot longer than people think.” PAPI currently controls 90% of sov nullsec with The Imperium as their only competitor. If Goons are gone, as PAPI hopes, and Noraus is right, then exactly whom do you cretins plan to fight?

      Arranged slapfests with predetermined doctrines and costs? Terrific. Behold PAPI’s glory.

      April 21, 2021 at 4:07 PM
      • Honestly, a NIPed nullsec where everyone can bot to their hearts’ content and pre-arranged brawls with prescribed doctrines sounds like their idea of paradise. An ISK-printing machine for the risk-averse: perfect.

        April 22, 2021 at 5:01 AM
      • Seir Luciel Guilford Australis

        He may be the only one sniffing, but he’s not the only one thinking it.

        “Is the “next war” already being fought?” asks Moomin’s article. Is there no better evidence than an article like this to support calling the Serenity 2.0 narrative a superstition?

        April 22, 2021 at 7:36 PM
        • Moomin Amatin Seir Luciel

          What Frat have in mind for AoM does not hinder the grander schemes of PanDaFam though. Have you looked at that map yet and listened to your leaders?

          April 22, 2021 at 8:30 PM
        • Guilford Australis Seir Luciel

          Seir – my comment at the top makes it clear I do not think FRT has any intention of fighting anyone else in PAPI other than AoM – as Noraus has said. If the only forseeable conflict in nullsec following WWB is the two major Chinese alliances slapping each other while both remaining members of the coalition that controls 90% of sov nullsec, then “Serenity 2.0” is not “superstition.”

          April 22, 2021 at 9:20 PM
          • Seir Luciel Guilford Australis

            I don’t know about AoM but I remember Noraus talking about how FRT are hesitant to get in really large fights with other groups because they are not competitive across all time zones, only one. It’s a problem that highlights the 24h nature of the server. Maybe AoM represents one of the only groups Fraternity could conceivably find good PvP content.

            So slapping each other? Maybe. But it could also simply be one of the only alliances Fraternity would be willing to undergo a more large scale attack with. I’m not saying that’s what’s going to happen. If I were Noraus, having mainly members on one timezone would be an interesting problem to try and work with.

            But I don’t think it would be the only foreseeable combat in the future. It may be the first cracks forming in the ice.

            April 23, 2021 at 2:54 PM
    • Democritus Dripple

      This is about as much independence as you’ll ever see out of Fraternity (or anyone else in the PAPI). They all know very well what happens when you step out of line against the XIX/Pandemic Legion puppet masters. The ISK for $$$ business must flow. The Serenity type stagnation is a very real possibility in Tranquillity.

      April 23, 2021 at 3:26 AM
      • Dripple Democritus

        Incase where 1DW falls and war ends, there will be a rather lengthy peace period in null, it’s not because goons are reduced to fly interceptions from NPC Delve.
        It’s because people and organisations need to adjust new scarcity changes and to be honest it’s been a long structure grind.
        However in time people will get bored and alliances are forced to provide content to their people or wither away.
        To provide meaningful content alliances will find reasons/ways to war each other.
        Someone calls someones girlfriend fat, old grievances come up, etc etc
        Goons have been a natural target for war, after all they have been that loud mouthed brat who thinks he’s toughest boy in the yard because he’s mom bought him expensive sneakers, but they are not the”only reason” go to war in null.

        April 25, 2021 at 6:11 AM
        • Garreth Vlox Dripple

          “Incase where 1DW falls and war ends, there will be a rather lengthy peace period in null, it’s not because goons are reduced to fly interceptions from NPC Delve.
          It’s because people and organisations need to adjust new scarcity changes and to be honest it’s been a long structure grind.”

          Ummm…. No? There would be peace because everyone not goons or shooting tapi in their home space would be blue to each other. this has nothing to do with scarcity, it is the outcome of forming a super clue donut.

          April 25, 2021 at 9:37 PM
      • Garreth Vlox Democritus

        lol Horde and NC. are supplying the majority of the numbers and ships to fight this war so far, PL and XIX hangers on just like legacy. Take away pandemic horde and NC. and this war would end overnight because TEST/XIX/PL don’t have the numbers to fight this war on their own.

        April 25, 2021 at 9:39 PM
  • yogizh

    Fraternity unlike the others has no real hate for Goons as we never tortured them too much and live on different sides of the galaxy. They have 16000 chars in alliance, they can be in both places if they really want.

    April 21, 2021 at 7:02 PM
  • Deni'z von Meanace

    Interesting. The AoM as far as i understand presents PIBC from Serenity. And FRT their long-term frienemies. But it looks like AoM is not that convinced to buld a strong representation on TQ and dealing with Legacy as a support for their non-public strategy. Wonder if they both joined PAPI to take off goons outta null and then to integrate themselves somehow in that vacuum, not talking about specific location but null sec as a whole.

    April 22, 2021 at 12:44 AM
  • Garreth Vlox

    So it begins.

    April 25, 2021 at 9:23 PM