The Knives are Not Coming Out, My Friends

2021-05-20

Far too often I see a common misconception among my fellow Goons; this recurring dream that, at some point, PAPI will turn in on itself and kill each other. I can only chalk it up to wishful thinking, as it would make the war much easier for the Imperium. But the reality is far more grim for PAPI, and ourselves, than most people understand.

The Present

On the home front, as of this writing, it is May 17, and the Imperium holds one constellation, O-EIMK, home of the capital system 1DQ1-A. PAPI, after a Keepstar-killing super-spree, has yet to make any notable gains in the past three weeks. Their raw numbers in the fights of late have been roughly even with the Imperium’s numbers. So let’s get to where the chess pieces are.

Location, Location, Location

One of the PAPI members, Legacy Coalition, has moved into Period Basis and Querious, and with limited success is also in living in Delve itself. Vily, much like the Conquistador Cortez, allowed their home regions to burn, in an effort to put all of Legacy Coalition into the front lines. Legacy Coalition has no home to which to return. However, Legacy by itself is no match for the Imperium. They know it and the Imperium knows it. As a result, the unity of PAPI is directly linked to the survival of Legacy Coalition. Having let their homes burn, Legacy has made that reality quite apparent to its members.

Another PAPI member, PanFam lives in arguably the most remote area in nullsec on the opposite side of the map from Delve: The Dronelands. Fraternity, an ally of PanFam for quite some time now, lives in PanFam’s former regions of Branch (itself quite remote), Tribute, and Vale of the Silent.

How PanFam Got There

After the Imperium campaigns of 2018 in the northern part of nullsec, PanFam retreated into the Dronelands, the furthest it could get possibly from the Imperium. Though ultimately the campaigns were losses for PanFam, they were able to survive through, in my opinion, a successful Fabien strategy. After the “Glassing of Tribute,” the Imperium had no interest in invading the Dronelands, in part due to the Fabien strategy. But other factors included Imperium’s need for a common enemy to provide on-going content. If you enjoy playing a game, you don’t exterminate your greatest opponent; you want them to exist so you can have great battles over and over and so that you can talk trash, etc.  It’s content.  Imagine any MMO game with no boss fights or worthy opponents. You’ll stop playing, probably. The interest in the game lies in the violence of great wars, and the threat of violence and preparation for violence, during peace time. And finally, Imperium’s campaign up north was far away from home, and extended invasion would have left the Imperium open to a counter-invasion, due to how far away and long-lasting the campaign would have been.

PanFam, being a rental empire, moved as far away from the enemy as it could to preserve that empire, nor did it deploy until very recently. PanFam, for the last few years have, as an organization, stayed home to protect krabs and renters. So, at this point, based on their actions, you must understand that PanFam’s recent priority has been safety: safety for its renters and safety for its krabs. With that in mind, let’s take a look at a possible outcome of WWB.

PAPI Takes 1DQ1-A: The post-war Nightmare and Stalemate

When PanFam returns home, they will be surrounded by blues and empty space in the remote area of the Dronelands. Having myself been deployed to Geminate for years fighting PanFam, considering their actions over the years, I disagree with the notion that Pandemic Horde is a PvP focused alliance. As their actions over the years have demonstrated, PanFam seeks passive income through renting and krabbing, as well as maintaining their status as landlords in their society. Peace will make the renters and the krabs happy, so I expect PanFam to be quite happy with this potential outcome. Only time will tell. However, life in PanFam space is generally pretty boring for PvP.

Life will be quite different for Legacy however. If Legacy Coalition manages to secure a Mutual Defense Treaty with PanFam, they will be in a similar position as the Imperium was after the Casino War. They will have changed dance partners, but the tune the band is playing is pretty much the same. They will be the little brother to a larger, more powerful, alliance on whom they depend for security.

The Imperium, bitter from its defeat, will likely keep a considerable amount of forces in NPC Delve to harass Legacy’s progress. However, any major deployment by the Imperium will see PanFam, bored to tears in the Dronelands, rush to Legacy’s aid. As the Imperium noticed during the Delve Miracle, harassment only leads to the strengthening of the friendship machine and a robust industry to replace losses. Should the losses be sustainable for Legacy, they will not only see some action, but be strengthened by it.

For anyone cheering for this outcome, due to the assumed Mutual Defense Pact, the optimal play for the Imperium will be to “blueballs” on a strategic level. Any colonization attempt in another space by the Imperium will see similar actions: “If the Imperium gains territory, we’ll blue up again to evict them again.” The so-called “Warden” system. With only two major coalitions left in nullsec, on opposite sides of the map from each other, and with the Imperium banking on those two disintegrating faster than themselves, it’s going to be pretty dull for quite some time. Whether or not the Imperium strategizes along that line, and whether that is “good for the game” is yet another article.

Conclusion

PanFam, WinterCo, and Legacy have no desire to turn on each other. PanFam seeks passive income through peaceful renting, WinterCo seeks income through peaceful krabbing, and Legacy wants to continue existing and rebuild. It is in PAPI’s best interests to remain a blue donut for now. So, don’t dream of internecine battles within PAPI. That’s probably wishful thinking.

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Comments

  • Rammel Kas

    I think the argument has more nuance than that. There is a split between wanting to blue but they can’t ultimately deny their fleets places to fight to keep their members engaged, for the good of the game. So there is a point where they would have to split the difference and walk alone. And if the other group are the only viable opponent then you can see any residual interpersonal frictions becoming the causus belli. However they don’t want to do that while Imperium remains a viable force. So we get the current limbo. They are in a way now being held prisoner by Imperium’s will to continue resisting. It’s a trap no less harmful than the M2 bubbles in a sense. And it is amplified by the poor strategic choice to plant their final keepstar right next door. So this is the catch.

    Also we have in point of fact seen actual fighting occur between PAPI members when they’re not being directly watched by the higher ups. So there is interpersonal friction. They are simply keeping a lid on it for the moment. And a lot of leg-work by their internal fixers which they for some reason elevate to the rank of “diplomats”.

    May 20, 2021 at 7:30 AM
    • Moomin Amatin Rammel Kas

      I just know that Noraus has made it very clear that he and Fraternity have “business” with AoM. With the situation Legacy find themselves in there would be little to nothing that they could offer in support to AoM. This could even be done with the rest of PanFam in Delve as Legacy is so weak and dependent on the rest of PAPI it will take any beating it has to in order to maintain the blue donut. Legacy’s very survival now seems inextricably linked to making this war last as long as possible.

      Just as a historical note, Legacy held a secret meeting to throw Co2 out of Legacy prior to Co2 being “Judged”. Legacy have a history of “ejecting” alliances that cause them problems.

      May 20, 2021 at 12:00 PM
      • Seir Luciel Moomin Amatin

        I can’t help but wonder if this “Legacy’s survival” stuff is a bit overplayed. Survive in what sense? Goons will “survive” even if they lose 1DQ, all their structures and sov, and move to NPC delve. Goons will still have a huge member count and still be a large super capital power (if everything stays as it is). Mainly, as long as they continue to log in and don’t splinter or fail cascade or have leaders who start appropriating corp funding (like Red Alliance for a time) then they will be surviving.

        By the same logic the same is going to be the case for Legacy, I would assume. True, I think they are going to have a hard time holding everything they have long term and its going to be interesting to see their development and strategy. But no matter what losses they take they are going to be a supercapital force and have a large member count.

        Maybe Goons are thinking towards some hoped for future where, separated from PAPI, Legacy defends solitary against a large, belated Goon counter attack in a kind of post-wwbii full assault. Maybe you are meaning, that after something like this, with the pressure of a large goon assault, Legacy might buckle. But what do you mean by “very survival?” Are you saying they will stop logging in, or will fracture and join other alliances, or become like BoB?

        May 20, 2021 at 12:22 PM
        • Moomin Amatin Seir Luciel

          A single lie is the foundation for WWB. Legacy asked The Imperium first. So all the talk of “toxic goons” and what not is all nonsense. Theatre for the masses to swallow to bring them into action. The cause? Renting.

          So when I talk of Legacy surviving it is very much more based on their ability to forge deals in the future. At this time I see it as being advantageous to PanDaFam to keep things as they are for as long as possible. Legacy get to kill themselves with a war they started and The Imperium are pinned all the time WWB continues and 1DQ is under threat. All of this allows PanDaFam and FIRE to secure the rental empire they so desire. Once this war is done Legacy will have served their purpose to PanDaFam.

          You know I always wondered if the influx of ex-PanFam members into TAPI influenced events leading up to this war. Fafer, Antar Logan, Manfred Sideous and others were all noteable names in PanFam and XDeath (now FIRE).

          Final thought on this I guess. Vily is currently “re-branding” to another char called Redrin. Think about that for a second. The name Vily has used to lead for around a decade and also campaigned on for the CSM is being “parked”. This I think sums up the reputation Legacy is likely to have in the future. A bad name that no one will want to have anything to do with as they have a long and proven history of breaking deals. The “brand” is tainted. As a goon I am happy to watch this slow-mo train wreck for the 2-4 years you predict PAPI will exist for. Truly some of the funniest stuff I have seen in Eve.

          May 20, 2021 at 1:05 PM
          • Seir Luciel Moomin Amatin

            “You know I always wondered if the influx of ex-PanFam members into TAPI influenced events leading up to this war.”

            I think a lot of things influenced the war; this included. But the larger pattern in my mind is former Goons, not former PanFam people. This war has Goons at the center of it, as well as all around the periphery; I haven’t really made up my mind yet on what to think of it.

            For example, Vily is a former Goon and TAPI as a whole group were once very tightly knit with Goons. Many of PAPI’s FC’s are former Goons. I don’t know much about it, but I overheard one discussion (from non-FCs I believe) talking about how many FC’s like coming to a group like Horde from Goons because Horde is more lenient on their FCs if they whelp their fleet. In Goons, so I heard, it is more cutthroat; if you make a bad mistake you’ll be chewed out. High pressure. IDK if that’s true, so Goons can confirm or deny, but the impression was that Goons tend to lose a lot of their FCs to lower pressure groups all throughout the galaxy.

            In essence, everywhere you look its either Goons defending Goondom or ex-Goons trying to bring down what they were a part of. That’s one of the reasons the war has gotten so personal. So yeah, maybe PanFam people in TAPI are having some kind of cultural influence but I don’t think that’s the main current of tension here. Its really about Goons, what they mean, who they have been, and those who left them. They really are the center link of this whole event, in one way or another. Maybe Goons deserve it, maybe not; but you could almost pitch this as a kind of weird Goon/former Goon civil war. The extras happened to join the ex-goons, though.

            As for Vily’s rebranding, in my opinion I think the major reason for that is a hugely successful Goon propaganda campaign that made the name infamous. Ultimately I think Goon’s PR plan worked; they’ve made the name so associated with pithy rhymes like “Vily’s Willy” and the like, he’s changing it. Redrin is harder to rhyme with phallic imagery, I suppose. I think the whole thing is a testament to, not the image of Legacy at large or their future, but Goon’s successfuly trolling a guy so hard he’s changing his name.

            May 20, 2021 at 2:23 PM
          • Alaric Faelen Seir Luciel

            It does point out that despite their desperate attempt to be ‘real boys’ even much of the PAPI brass is just ex-Goons with an axe to grind.
            It’s sad that GSF is so dominant a creative force in the game that their only serious threats come from people that were once Goons themselves. If it weren’t for Goons or ex-Goons, nothing at all would happen in Eve Online.
            Say Grr Gewns and we’re bad for the game all you want— Goons are literally the sole driving force behind Eve content.

            May 20, 2021 at 3:26 PM
          • Seir Luciel Alaric Faelen

            I don’t know what constitutes “real” or “real boys” in EVE online, but if your actions or the threat of your actions influence other people’s decisions in-game, by definition you have influence. The strength of Goon influence is incontestable; it is one of the things that started the war. Ex-goons likewise are showing considerable influence.

            I don’t see why it would be sad that GSF is a dominant creative force in the game; any creative force in the game is a good thing. What I think should be taken from this is that the Goon/not-Goon binary is pretty unstable. Here’s a question: does an ex-Goon FC become a pubbie when he leaves and joins another organization? Or does he still retain some of that “goon-ness” that separates him from the pubbie masses? Furthermore, if so many old Goons (now ex-Goons) are fighting the current iteration of Goons, can it really be said that who Goons are now and what they mean is the same as what they were and what they meant?

            This is the tension between the character of organizations as they lose and gain members. Would Goonswarm without The Mittani still be Goonswarm? Would Horde become a little bit Goonswarm if (by some freak chance) Gobbins stepped down and The Mittani were now head of Horde? Maybe, maybe not. But the same kinds of questions might be asked about priominant FC’s. If a bunch of Goon FC’s leave Goons, is Goons as an organization still the same thing? Are ex-Goons fighting to destroy the same Goons they were a part of? Or are they fighting to destroy what it has become, perhaps made necessarily different by their leaving?

            The obvious other question is motivation. Why are so many ex-Goons willing to destroy the organization they were a part of. Goons tend to reflexively answer this by saying “they just want to be as ‘real’ as us,” or something along those lines. Maybe. Probably for some people. But all of them? All of them leaving without that live and let live attitude of a peaceful breakup; why so many messy divorces?

            May 20, 2021 at 4:44 PM
          • Moomin Amatin Seir Luciel

            The thing that started this war is that The Imperium said “no” to Legacy. When both Vily and Piggles have both been very public in saying this I have to wonder why you refute this obvious and repeated fact. Why is that?

            Goons will still be Goons with or without Mittens. You see being a Goon is more like a state of mind than the cult following you think it is. Most FCs leave The Imperium when their Dunning Kruger meets reality or that they think they are above “the rules” if proven semi-competent. The final big factor I think is the “keys” they get for different doctrines. You think The Imperium is keen on letting an out spoken mouth piece lead their capital fleet into certain disaster because the FC team were a bit sleepy?

            This war was about a lie. It still is. This was all about rent. Throw the “goon” name around enough and maybe people will forget it right? Until PAPI even admit this they are in an increasingly tough spot.

            May 20, 2021 at 6:00 PM
          • Moomin Amatin Seir Luciel

            You can think what you like on the war front as for motives and the like. The fact remains Legacy asked The Imperium first.

            As for Vily. He trolled himself and he knows it. He shouted so loudly for so long abuot how amazing he is as an FC and Mil Director. So when you have assembled the largest force ever in New Eden and out number your foe by 3 to 1 results are expected. So what are the results? You know only too well some of the things that Vily has said. Talk can only keep the show going for so long.

            The choice of name you say is harder to mock. Err “Red-rim”, job done? Should I feel proud of that feat? Not at all, but I do think it shows a lack of imagination on your part ;-). Hey at least The Imperium has not started a war to stop him from playing right?

            May 20, 2021 at 5:45 PM
          • Seir Luciel Moomin Amatin

            You’re right; Legacy asked The Imperium first. I don’t know what impression I gave you, leading you to think I was refuting that. The follow up question is “why didn’t Goons accept and avoid all this?”

            One answer is that they didn’t want to be the “blue donut.” I don’t actually buy this, though. The hatred for the blue donut didn’t exist at the time. It was invented by goons afterward to vilify the enemy, so I don’t think this is really a good response, but I know most goons will disagree with me. Still: I think your disagreement is anachronistic, applying the sentiments of the present on the past.

            Which brings me to the next answer: Goons didn’t expect Legacy to offer the same deal to PanFam, so they didn’t have any pressure to accept before that happened. I think this answer carries more weight, but I don’t think it is fully fair to jump on Goons for not being able to predict the future. If you took the sov map from now, took it into the past, and showed it to The Mittani and gang would they have accepted? Honestly, I think they might. I think if Goons knew this was going to happen, a lot of them would be mad if their leaders didn’t do something to stop it when given the chance.

            I suppose it really comes down to whether we should fault Goons or not for expecting Legacy to offer PanFam the same deal so quickly. Some might, but I actually don’t. Having said that, I do think it maybe was questionable to seem so on the fence in hindsight; ideally, if want time to consider the offer you do so without Legacy sensing “no” from you and offering it to someone else. I think Goons lost an opportunity at better diplomacy.

            The third reason is “Goons don’t want to swallow another group; it’s bad for the game.” This argument might hold some weight, but one needs to prove it actually is bad for the game. Alliances have died, and others replaced them. EVE isn’t always about live and let live. People move on and keep logging back in, and the grievances of old tend to fuel future wars and hence, future content. I don’t think death in EVE is actually a bad thing, in and of itself (though its going to suck for whoever is experiencing it).

            But if Goons really were worried about the death of the game by bashing PanFam too hard, they could have always pulled out when they thought PanFam had had enough. Let’s say Goons had accepted what Legacy offered; it doesn’t mean they have to go as far as Legacy wanted. Going blue doesn’t mean you give up your autonomy; you can always step out. So this argument doesn’t really hold up either in my opinion.

            The final argument is that Goons worried Legacy would betray them. Well, maybe. But whatever that alternate universe looks like, its probably way better than what our universe looks like for Goons. I doubt a betrayed Imperium is pushed back to a single system. Hell, with all the flak you send at TAPI, I’m surprised Goons were scared of Legacy betraying them at all.

            I think at the end of the day, Goons missed some diplomatic opportunities that have cost them dearly. Goon narrative is that WWBII was inevitable, but that isn’t true. This could have worked itself out differently. Maybe it was just bad luck, but going forward, if you are ever offered a deal, if I were in Goon’s place, I’d think long and hard about what to do next. I might think faster, too.

            May 20, 2021 at 8:44 PM
          • Moomin Amatin Seir Luciel

            I was writing pieces back in 2017 about the evils of renting. This is what sparked not 1, not 2 but 3 editor in chiefs of an NC sponsored “news site” to embark on a number of creative writing exercises about me. Some of which are still linked to me to this day in local chat. One of them was posted on Valentine’s Day, which I think was a sign.

            When The Imperium was evicted during The Casino war we were told emphatically that “all of Eve” would come for us again. There has been so much about farming Delve and how terrible Goons are ever since. Why on earth do you or anyone in PAPI think that we would not expect you to come again? The first decisions made when setting up in Delve was based on “how do we defend this?”. The Imperium not only expected “all of Eve” again but secretly wished for it, at least on my part and others.

            Personally when The Imperium became more friendly with Legacy I was a bit surprised. But I was willing to assist and see where it all went. So were others as we showed in UALX. A victory claimed by TAPI but one we all know was secured by The Imperium. But I never for once trusted them. I would never rely on them for a single thing. For me TAPI had already proven themselves more than dishonest in the past. Just ask Co2. It would only be a matter of time before TAPI betrayed The Imperium as they had so many times before.

            So as we knew this would happen again and prepared for it, we are able to say things like, “we are all in” and to really mean it. Now is PAPI “all in”? That is the real question here. Especially as The Imperium is “sieged” and unable to escape due to the “anaconda strategy”.

            “Maybe it was just bad luck, but going forward, if you are ever offered a deal, if I were in Goon’s place, I’d think long and hard about what to do next. I might think faster, too.”, this is a keeper. So far Mittens has said “diplomacy is not an option”, I for one am holding him to that. It was diplomacy that created the rental-blue-dounut-mega-coalition after all.

            May 20, 2021 at 10:02 PM
          • Alaric Faelen Moomin Amatin

            Basically everything that the Eve community has agreed is bad for the game- is represented to the letter by PAPI.

            +Botting– check CCP’s own map of where that happens most.
            +Blue Donut– look at the coalition map.

            +Toxic Elitism– until you find out that ‘leet PvP’ is staying docked until you have at least 3 to 1 blob odds
            +Rental Empires– extorting people to leave high sec essentially.

            + N+1 Blobbing– because who needs skill when F1 monkeys exist?
            + Weaponized Boredom– it’s in their own SOTA’s as their strategy for ‘victory’.

            But Grr Gewns and all that jazz.

            May 21, 2021 at 8:56 PM
          • Moomin Amatin Alaric Faelen

            Funniest war to date that I have been in by a long way. Love it.

            May 21, 2021 at 11:23 PM
          • Majestic Seir Luciel

            If “Weak Willy” General is so easily offended by the sound of his name, he should write a petition to CCP, and ask for ban to any player in EVE, who mistype his name in chat, or prevent saying his name on comms, lol.

            We have real life examples of such nonsense: calling woman a woman is a crime, because in her head she is he ))) calling Russia a democratic state, where real dictator sits 20+ years in president seat, calling Trump supporters the mob, while people burning and looting shops – peacefull gatherings. The list is long xD

            But when it comes to “Weak Willy” General, we saw, that in reality he is just a teenager, while playing a game with gamer’s base 30+ years. He is behaving like teenager, make his diplomacy like teenager, and forever will be knows as teenagers wet dream.

            It’s funny to see, how people on Tranquility were scaring one another with Serenity catastrophe, but creating Serenity step by step with their own hands

            When PanFam and Goons will destroy their’s Super fleet in mutual mega-fight, the only big force left will be Fraternity. And they can easily grab several more regions of game, dunno, Drones, or Gallente space. And we will have Serenity manifested itself. Not Serenity 2.0, but clear Serenity 1, where Chineese have half of the server.

            Why?

            Coz PandaFam is playing ‘Weak Willy’ game. Not their own, but his game.
            If you can imagine the scenario, where old guys singing in teenagers chore – we have it here, in WWB2.

            Mutual destruction of biggest forces on server, just to warm a little ego of teenager, and presenting whole server for Chineese RMT empire.

            Nice… Amazing!

            Standing applause!!

            May 21, 2021 at 5:42 PM
          • Elithiel en Gravonere Seir Luciel

            In answer to why so many ex-Goons have an axe to grind. There has been several cultural revolutions within Goons, to transform it into a far less Toxic organisation and more into a professional outfit. This wasn’t an overnight process and has been ongoing since the Casino war. We essentially have spent time, pushing out the toxic souls, the ones that go full aggro on line members for making a simple mistake in fleet, the ones who think Goons are all about them (narcissists), the ones that are racist, horrible idiots, etc. The ones that rip off Goon line members for their own profit. Those types are the ones we’ve spent time getting rid of. They’ve invariably ended up in TEST or PanFam and have a hate boner for their former Goonswarm brothers and sisters who kicked them out.

            It is a by product of our clean up process, to have nicer and generally good quality management and leadership within our organisation. Some of them are completely incompetent at being FC’s, but they were never kicked out for their FC incompetence (Pittsburgh, Ichinumi, Redline have welped billions of isk as FCs for instance). Nearly in every case, if you knew the inside story, it was down to quality of character or lackthereof that met their end in our empire.

            May 24, 2021 at 4:07 AM
        • Gwailar Seir Luciel

          I could see TEST cascading at some point in a way the Imperium hasn’t.

          May 21, 2021 at 10:45 PM
      • Xelistren Moomin Amatin

        What I understand from everything I have read leading to this point, Legacy is in a tight spot. PanFam has suffered the smallest losses, PanFam and AoM have a historic beef that will not ever be fully squashed, Legacy is still to this point taking the blunt of the battles. If I was in Legacy I would be pushing for the removal of Vily and an instant side switch. GoonSwarm has shown in the past that they have no intent to blue donut, so Legacy doing this would allow them to exist in the future. Simply Goons won’t quit and when PanFam launches on Legacy they will have 2 things to account for, Treatment of Imperium and trusting a backstabber not to stab you in the back. In the scope of things I know sometime within the next year war will begin between AoM and PanFam, the question becomes how will Legacy empower the Goons to return.

        May 20, 2021 at 6:04 PM
        • Moomin Amatin Xelistren

          You are on the same page as me for certain with your thinking. The main bit I think most people are missing is that it serves PanDaFams interests the most by having this war go on now. I think Legacy would love a way out now but are forced to stay as PanDaFam are not leaving. Legacy has crippled itself by trying to prove it was “a force to be reckoned with”. If it leaves now they are cowards, incompetent and a host of other mean spirited things. Legacy are literally killing themselves for a war they started based on a lie. So funny.

          How Legacy gets out of the mess it has created for itself, well I have no idea about that. Especially as TAPI leadership is unable to confront reality when it is plain for all others to see. PanDaFam are now by far the most dominant group in the game.

          May 20, 2021 at 6:55 PM
    • Seir Luciel Rammel Kas

      I mainly agree with Rammel, though see it through mainly a slightly different framework. The long term split between wanting to blue and eventually wanting to fight is there, and is real. Its one of the reasons why I don’t see the serenity superstition particularly viable; the political and military map post-wwbii looks too unstable, fractured. There are going to be a lot of different interests pulling in a lot of different directions at the end of all this.

      But for the mean time this “limbo” as Rammel says will continue; that limbo being nothing more than PAPI and this war as a whole. Every war is a kind of limbo between two sets of peace. However, whether that limbo is seen as negative or positive is up for review. I was listening to people talk in comms the other day about how EVE feels like a whole new game, and how the action with the war has been hotter than ever. Real things, with consequences, are happening right now and making history in this limbo. Its honestly a great time to be playing EVE, probably whichever side you are on. Even Goon’s can’t claim there isn’t something to do or lack of important fleet to get in. Content is here.

      To end, I’d say that PAPI is “held prisoner” is a bit much. I take your point. There is political and military pressure for PAPI to stay blue for the moment, to fight Goons. But to say they are held prisoner is a bit of a slant. Politics and pride incentivize them not to leave, along with a sense of mission to see 1dq through; but at face value its Goons who are as much, if not more prisoners than PAPI could be.

      May 20, 2021 at 12:42 PM
      • Alaric Faelen Seir Luciel

        I disagree on the basis that PAPI requires literally the entirety of the blue donut to be effective. They did not even try GSF with a partial donut- it was all or nothing before they would commit at all. Even with that level of advantage now- they are loathe to actually use their precious capitals. They cannot risk dashing their supers on the rocks of Delve and be left weak after the war. They either have to believe in the blue donut– or abandon the only thing that they can rely on to bring them victory– that N+1 blob bigger than any competitor trying to muscle in.
        PAPI must keep their donut intact and at it’s current all-in level to inflict as much damage on GSF as possible so that it will require less than the full might of the blue donut’s super fleet to deal with them and Init going forward. They cannot afford to break up their blue donut because none of them can win without it. And no one in the donut now will risk the wrath of the rest of the donut by attacking anyone around them. Or you’ll just be blobbed out like GSF was.

        It’s all arranged fights and NiP’s from now on in sov null. This is the last sov war for Eve.

        May 20, 2021 at 3:45 PM
        • Seir Luciel Alaric Faelen

          I disagree on the basis that PAPI requires literally the entirety of the blue donut to be effective.

          I’d pick at your word “effective.” The three blocks of The Imperium, Legacy, and PanFam were roughly equal. Not totally, but close. They could fight and might gain ground on one or the other, but their relative equality meant that one couldn’t really hope to severely damage another in the way we see Goons being damaged. Panfam could not have simply swallowed Legacy, for instance.

          So it is true, if “effective” means the kind of swallowing we are seeing. It takes a PAPI to swallow another whole block. If it had just been one group on another, there would have been a lot of fighting that mainly went nowhere; an effective stalemate, even if the border shifted here and there.

          May 20, 2021 at 4:52 PM
          • Garreth Vlox Seir Luciel

            “I’d pick at your word “effective.””

            Not sure why, tapi were not “effective” at all when they tried their pincer maneuver. It wasn’t until horde and company did the old end around to join them on the eastern front that tapi made any progress at all… And without tapi being annoying but essentially making no progress on the eastern front goons could have fully focused the entire war machine on the western front and horde and company would have gone nowhere, so it really did take the entire donut for them to be “effective”. Its why you now cling so dearly to the donut, you all know that without it things would go very badly very fast.

            May 20, 2021 at 4:57 PM
          • Alaric Faelen Garreth Vlox

            Exactly. And it’s also the threat to keep the donut members in line. There is no autonomy left in sov null. Anyone that upsets the donut applecart will just be blobbed by the rest of the donut, and it won’t even take the kind of effort required for GSF.

            They can’t win without a blob, they certainly can’t win against one either. So again, arranged fights and NiPs for that ‘leet PvP’ is all you’ll see from now on. There are only a couple truly relevant players in PAPI and as long as a couple of those ‘momma bear’ alliances agree to blob up- none of the rest stand a chance to do anything but exactly what they are told.

            May 20, 2021 at 5:10 PM
          • Seir Luciel Alaric Faelen

            The problem I have with this narrative is just how elitist it is. It discounts a whole swath of the player base. Elitism is always a prejudiced framing that, on the surface looks reasonable because you can point to “truly relevant players” who have publicity, but can’t point to other relevant players who have an influence though are less well known.

            Elitism feeds off the logic of popularity and publicity, at times even merit, but its never an accurate perception of the world.

            May 20, 2021 at 5:14 PM
          • Alaric Faelen Seir Luciel

            Rental empires by their nature are elitist and toxic to the game. Yet that is exactly the vision of null sec PAPI is fighting to achieve.
            Rental empires are good for e-peen by lording over other players and extracting tribute. They are terrible for player morale and participation.
            Renters are second class citizens, basically extorted to even play the game beyond newbie space. Their space is whatever is left over after the ‘real’ alliances get theirs, and they are used as meatshields against invasion. If they get lippy or you just don’t want to bother defending them, they are disposable. Once upon a time the game mechanics required this system, but now it’s just a hold over for people that want to be in that position of power within some internet game.

            I will agree that elitism isn’t an accurate perception of the world. Alliances like PL pitch themselves to pubbies as ‘leet PvP’ but then you join and find out you’re just another name in local during a blob that had to be 3 to 1 before your FC would even undock. Get to watch PAPI leaders getting their supers out of harms way them telling everyone else to suck it up and train an alt. Yes, elitism is indeed toxic.

            May 20, 2021 at 5:31 PM
          • Seir Luciel Garreth Vlox

            If nothing else, TAPI were diplomatically “effective” enough to get a bunch of people to push Goons, the strongest alliance at the time, into a single constellation. Some people who play RPG’s put all their points in Speech or Charisma, and I suppose we are seeing that’s viable as well.

            May 20, 2021 at 5:19 PM
          • Moomin Amatin Seir Luciel

            Not sure I see that as the only option to be honest. Here is another one.

            Gobbins: TAPI asked us to attack goons. So effectively they take all the risk and get the blame. Bonus points as it weakens Legacy which means Frat will have less issues taking out AoM when the time comes.
            LS: So this means we will have more space we can rent out? Awesome, I will get right on it.
            Vince: Make it so.

            This seems to explain better a war that should have ended in three months tops.

            May 20, 2021 at 10:12 PM
          • Garreth Vlox Seir Luciel

            “TAPI were diplomatically “effective” enough to get a bunch of people to push Goons”

            tapi: You guys wanna go shoot goons?
            other guys: Sure

            If that’s where you set the bar for diplomacy… well ok I guess.

            May 21, 2021 at 3:49 PM
          • Dripple Garreth Vlox

            Well you could also argue that Imperium failed diplomacy so badly, that “wanna go shoot goons” was enough to unite nullsec.

            May 22, 2021 at 11:20 AM
          • Garreth Vlox Dripple

            “”wanna go shoot”
            Has been the reason for a large majority of eve wars and conflicts. So using that as the bar for calling it “good” diplomacy is setting the bar at ankle height.

            May 22, 2021 at 6:01 PM
        • Xelistren Alaric Faelen

          This is hardly the last sov war for several reasons. Brave fights for content they have made this clear, AoM and PanFam has beef, Goonswarm will not die, ETC. With all of this it is easy to foresee a play for a new war that would bring content and remove the blue donut. Question will be if Legacy wises up fast enough to prevent PanFam from getting a stranglehold strong enough to control and stop wars.

          May 20, 2021 at 6:15 PM
      • Eve_Osir1s Seir Luciel

        Serenity isn’t a sustainable goal, I agree. I suppose I should of added the text ‘for now’ at some point to clarify that.

        May 20, 2021 at 9:17 PM
  • Deni'z von Meanace

    As it already known TEST offered Imp to joinly invade PanFam before this war. Having that in mind PanFam won’t never trust and relies on TEST’s word or any other agreement. Cause Legacy if it keeps growing and gaining power has to feed its hunger. And sooner or later knock on PanFam’s door.

    May 20, 2021 at 12:19 PM
  • Guilford Australis

    The most likely outcome is that PAPI fails in their plan to take The Imperium’s remaining constellation by attacking it once a week with subcaps in hopes of boring us to death. PanFam will at some point bugger off back to where they came from. PAPI will remain a gigantic blue donut long-term, as Noraus said. They’ll continue to insist it’s not a giant blue donut, it’s just a permanent coalition that controls 90% of sov nullsec with the single aim of killing The Imperium whenever it becomes strong enough to threaten its krabs, renters, and Reddit dominance. The Imperium will start thrashing Legacy in and around Delve as soon as PanFam wanders off back to Dronelands, and Gobbins will have to make some tough choices about how often he’s willing to ping for fleets to save Vily and PGL. I imagine ping-ponging back and forth between Delve and Dronelands will get old for the average PanFam line member. But then again, these are the same people who have spent nearly twelve months grinding undefended structures and swear that’s the most fun they’ve ever had in EVE, so it’s possible they wouldn’t object to eternal tedium in service of their overlords in TEST.

    May 20, 2021 at 12:46 PM
  • Alaric Faelen

    I don’t think anyone actually believed that the blue donut would break up post-war. That’s propaganda to feed line members when confronted with the reality of turning Tranquility into Serenity.
    This is N+1, a complete reliance on blobbing to win. PAPI has abandoned competition or skill and simply applied throwing more people at a battle than their enemies. Their long strategy is to bore Goons out of the game slightly faster than they bore their own people out. The illusion of any of those alliances being ‘leet PvP’ was shattered when their entire super fleet was held hostage for two months. Without the blob of the blue donut, they are nothing. Indeed, they didn’t even have the courage to attack Goons with say, half a blue donut– it took literally bluing the entire map before they had the stones to make a move.

    Their fate is now having to rage assemble their entire super fleet to play whack-a-mole anywhere someone wants to poke at sov. They can’t hope to win with anything less, and even now with that large of an advantage- you’ll have to drag them kicking and screaming into actually using capitals.
    Once the blob disperses, it’s not coming back quickly. People are burned out after a ridiculous war effort to begin with, and risking now precious capitals for people that already got them taken away for months sure wouldn’t be high on my priority list once I moved back home and safe from Delve.

    May 20, 2021 at 3:08 PM
  • Michele Manfredi

    eve is in the imperium hands…that blue donuts is a nightmare for the game and nullsec endgame content.

    May 20, 2021 at 6:59 PM
    • Eve_Osir1s Michele Manfredi

      Perhaps, I’ll be writing up an article on how I view the endgame will turn out should 1DQ1-A fall. I personally think either outcome is good for the game and the Imperium and Ill get into it in the new article.

      May 21, 2021 at 12:37 AM
  • Romulus Loches

    I’d just like to point out that the “Glassing of Tribute” didn’t end because of a successful Fabian strategy, it ended because CCP released fleets of Drifters that were shooting structures that overwhelmingly targeted Delve compared to most other regions. Literally, an update was pushed to Tranquility that required a number of Imperium leadership to drop everything and deal with NPCs and effectively ended the war.

    We will never know what might have happened if CCP hadn’t intervened (intentionally or not) and that war was allowed to progress to a natural conclusion.

    May 20, 2021 at 7:03 PM
    • Eve_Osir1s Romulus Loches

      You are correct, there are several factors. As I said it was it in part. There were other factors in play.

      May 20, 2021 at 9:07 PM
    • Alaric Faelen Romulus Loches

      Remind me again what alliance Raivi came from?

      May 21, 2021 at 4:26 AM
  • Eve_Osir1s

    Thanks for the hard-carry INN editors, well done!

    May 20, 2021 at 9:05 PM
  • Deni'z von Meanace

    Btw Imp could deploy to both Syndicate and Soltitude and rebuild from there it’s obviously no need to lock themselves into npc Delve with hostile 0.0 arround. That would save them from gaining new null sec home for a while and provide more ability to harass Legacy anytime and anywhere.

    May 20, 2021 at 11:05 PM
  • kwnyupstate .

    I’ll believe that when they aren’t worried about using titans and super carriers against the Imperium due to not needing to watch their back later on.

    May 21, 2021 at 12:55 AM
  • Majestic

    I dont understand. Why are you not making last step in your thought experiment? Shall we fo it together?

    Why is it good for PAPI to be blue forever?
    – Peace bring krabs and renters to your space.

    Why do big alliance need more krabs and renters?
    – More ISK for alliance leaders from rent and bounties.

    Why do they need so much ISK?
    – Obviuosly, RMT. They receive real money $$$ -> in exchange for ISK.

    Do they want to continue their gameplay forever?
    – Yes. It’s THEIRS money, and any who oppose that philosophy of RMT – is enemy of the state, and should be exterminated/expelled out of the game completely, players should not have any chance of any other style of gameplay, exept of making RMT leaders rich.

    Who are the biggest RMT alliances?
    – Fraternity and Horde. It is known already. There was an investigation in the past, where most account blocked for RMT were Hordes. But it was before Chineese migration here.

    So, all this war is about RMT earnings?
    – Yes. Moomin saying ‘renting war’. It’s not just about ‘renting’, it’s about earning hard $$$ money via pixel game. Thats why they dont want to have any rivals to their RMT empire.

    But keep pretending, that you dont understand, what I’m saying, and thats are only rambling of a mad man…

    Ok. I don’t care. I don’t have shares in this war, but explaining easy things like they are hard and complicated is rediculous. Grow up.

    May 21, 2021 at 7:24 PM
  • Carvj94

    There’s two things holding PAPI together right now. Mutual dislike for the Imperium and the fact that if an alliance left and PAPI lost the war they’d end up with a target on their back. PAPI members don’t actually care about each other. They just signed up to shoot goons and didn’t think about the long term consequences.

    May 21, 2021 at 10:33 PM
  • Elithiel en Gravonere

    I actually think it doesn’t matter much anymore. The meta has changed. Holding Delve is completely irrelevant to being a super power. You can now be a roaming alliance under the new method. Much like PL was in the olden days. Why? Because besides holding a few key nullsec systems for mining and capital building, most of your isk is now made in places other than nullsec. Highsec miners, lowsec miners, wormhole gas huffers, incursions, mission running in NPC space, C5s and C6s, abyssal grounds, reactions, etc. We don’t physically need a lot of space anymore. The holding of 1DQ constellation proves that all we really need, is a single constellation, even with a whole large alliance of our size. We will need some NPC space, some Nullsec, some lowsec, some highsec control and some wormhole space to now be viable. The perfect spot is no longer 1DQ constellation but the systems that allow us to be adjacent to all three known space systems plus plenty of wormholes to w-space. Given as an empire, we can hold out the blue donut indefinitely (as proven so far in the past month), we can go anywhere on the map and no one can actually stop us without engaging super battles like M2.

    May 24, 2021 at 4:58 AM