Much has been written about the Northern War, and we all know how it ended, but what’s next and how did we get here? We reached out to participants of the most recent Northern War to take a sampling of thoughts from pilots on both sides of the aisle.
Leveraging its industrial might, Imperium forces have laid waste to 10 Keepstars and too-many-other-citadels-to-count in a decisive ‘piss off’ to its Northern adversaries. As a result, it’s established itself as the only current superpower in Eve. A peace settlement that hands Delve cash and structures worth hundreds of billions of ISK may be the final tribute, but Pandemic Horde’s decision to ignore the settlement leaves the door open for further wreckage.
Let’s look at how we got here.
How’d We Get Here?
Iron Armada CEO Tridgit believes the Imperium didn’t so much win the war as its enemies lost the war. He says, “The Imperium’s been building and moving their feet for two years straight. It’s no secret. It’s not hidden. They were in the gym lifting weights, over and over, for years. The North did not. It’s no surprise who wins when the guy who’s been working out hard for years goes up against a guy who used to fight years ago but has been sitting on the couch.”
S Tier CEO and TEST Legacy military leader Vily echoes those comments. “The Imperium won this war on their enemies’ incompetence more than any other factor,” he says.
Some of it is structural and cultural as well. Imperium Ministry of Truth member Paramemetic says, “The North has a collection of problems that, all in all, aren’t calculated to be good for the game. High among those is the reality that the biggest forces in the North, the superpowers that served as the Imperium’s counterpart, are either not really interested in playing at all, or aware that they can’t beat us in a real battle. Pandemic Legion’s leadership doesn’t play Eve anymore, with most of their active corporations and alliances having left to do other things. So PL, once the pre-eminent supercapital superpower, is effectively dead. Without PL, Northern Coalition knows they can’t field numbers that can actually beat the Imperium, and even if they could, they’d be doing so to prop up Circle of Two and others who quite obviously aren’t interested in defending themselves.”
Will Settlement Hold Minus Horde?
As reported in detail here, the not-as-secret-as-intended settlement sees the Imperium withdrawing its main fleet, SIGs/squads, and cloaky campers from Northern territories for one month, and from GOTG space for six months. This started Friday, September 29, as long as a laundry list of conditions were met by enemy forces, but Pandemic Horde removed itself from the peace settlement Saturday due to comments made by their alliance leader.
“The peace settlement minus Horde will hold as long as the various northern alliances can stick to it,” says Imperium diplomat Dirk Stetille. He adds, “[on September 29] we published a policy thread on the peace accords, which is to say that we made it an official post for all of our members to abide by. Sharp-eyed members noted that Geminate has been removed from NIP coverage, because Horde had a very public breakup with GOTG, the group with whom our agreement is with. In combination with comments from the fireside from The Mittani declaring it ‘open season’ on Horde assets in any region, I think (Pandemic Horde alliance leader) Gobbins is about to realize why everyone says ‘you should never make decisions when you’re angry or upset’.”
As reported earlier, Imperium Finance Director Aryth observes that from the North’s perspective, “they [need] their space to be secure enough to live in again or their regions [will] continue to shed members and alliances [will] continue to fall apart. They were going to lose the entire region to a wildfire of steamrolling titans/supers. We save a ton of grinding in AUTZ, and they probably save their coalition.” Signing the peace settlement was “a no-brainer,” Aryth says. “The right call in every scenario.”
Other observers believe the North will hold up its end of the settlement if for no other reason than it has no choice. “They need the breathing room to build their industrial capacity, and rebuild their titan fleets,” a senior Imperium official told INN. “Honestly, they need time to organize, because if one thing killed them in this war, it’s that they weren’t organized and singing from the same hymn sheet.”
On the other hand, Darkness CEO Sort Dragon “paid for a timeout,” according to “Talking in Stations” host Matterall. “It’s a gamble. Will his troops run for the hills, make deals of their own with the Imperium, or will they recover and rally? Who knows…who cares? That’s just the topsoil on this deal. Beneath the surface, there is a whole other calculation made by the Imperium which reminds me of Microsoft’s $150 million investment into a beleaguered Apple way back in 1997. At the time, Microsoft was a dominant company under fire by the US government for their aggressive business practices. The move was Microsoft’s way of staving off a federal anti-trust suit for being a monopoly.”
Matterall continues, “In the same way, the Imperium has to modulate its sweep of the north, and as a bonus getting some shiny Fortizars off of Sort Dragon. I’m pretty sure Tuzy, Goons’ logistic commander, is a happy man. Some of those Forts are as defensible as Keepstars, (but) the payment is just a narrative puppet show. [The Initiative. CEO] Sister Bliss was just this side of furious when he found out how lightly Sort had been let off. The real play here is not killing off the competition and staving off a CCP intervention, or even worse killing the host body they live off. By the way, Microsoft’s play didn’t work. In 1998 Microsoft was sued by the government.”
On CCP’s Radar?
Conversely, Imperium Ministry of Propaganda member Paramemetic suggests that the Imperium’s mastery of market forces/mining made them unstoppable, but questions whether CCP would make mechanic changes that affect the “fair play” balance of the game.
Iron.Guard Diplomat Jurius Doctor says, “Do I see CCP intervening? Fuck no. Game’s not that far gone, yet, but I can see some strong balance passes coming into the game, and new factions, and new assets, and new ways of playing the game. Plus, Goons aren’t as invincible as the hype says. A determined, savvy group could hurt them.”
What of The North?
With its staging Keeps stardust, it’s an open question whether Northern forces will crawl back to fight another day, or whether new groups will fill the vacuum left behind.
“Ultimately, I think this will prove to have Pandemic Horde become a victim of Gobbins’ lack of strategic overview, because they’re the only hostile group currently set up to challenge us industrially, and they’ve thrown away a month to really fortify into Geminate because he was angry about the terms. PH could have started catching up over the next six months.” says Stetille. That would have required “a focus on utilizing their resources, so a boom in refinery structures to begin with, followed by more shipyards, and a focus on building their super capital fleet.”
Smaller groups could see the war and its aftermath as an opportunity. TEST’s Vily believes “that would be a good thing.”
Another with that view is Jurius Doctor, who says, “One of the things which I believe Imperium diplomats must have realized is that to avoid starving themselves of content, (they) need to do a better job of encouraging small entities to find homes and grow in Null, and to provide some umbrella of independence under which they can operate – without being pets, prey, or an income stream – where the small entities can grow and live long enough to come to encompass a vision of expansion. To be the next large entities.”
He adds, “The steamroller destroys morale and desire for content. It’s like salting the soil in which you want diversity to grow. Yes, Imperium pilots will want to have the opportunity to drop their titans and super capitals, and will eventually starve for content at that scale, because if that becomes the hammer you drop any time you get a decent-sized fight, the Imperium risks turning Tranquility into Serenity, or driving people from the game. Small entities are the future and the health of this game.”
“In fact,” he continues, “Given the long-game adjustment and patience the Imperium and its member corporations will need to exemplify, the greatest threat to the Imperium isn’t a new power rising from without to challenge them, or all of New Eden ganging up to fight them under cries of ‘Grr Goons’. The wolf at the door will be the hungry wolves in their own ranks, getting cagey under a lack of content and seeing an opportunity to use their teeth in earnest. That will likely lead to dissolution from within and a significant number breaking off from the core to form a new force to contend with who has the riches, assets, and lessons learned from Delve to apply somewhere else. Likely Geminate.”
Now What?
Few people involved in the war on either side are willing to go out on a limb and discuss what comes next. It’s opsec, or politically dangerous. Capitalist Army CEO and author of several popular overviews of Eve geopolitics Alekseyev Karrde has no such restraints.
“The omission of PanFam and Triumvirate from the respective north and south peace agreements keeps some doors open for further aggression. FRT is physically between Legacy and TRI, so it seems unlikely that conflict in the south will continue unless FRT completely flips and allows Legacy to stage in their space (or joins outright). I don’t think that’s likely at this juncture, The FRT/TRI relationship is definitely a strategic arrangement and wont last forever though. PanFam will need to organize their disparate groups better and figure out how to get the economic power to match the Delve machine. It’s either that or prepare now for an eventual evacuation, but they can’t really go anywhere either TEST or Goons can’t touch except consolidating with TRI/FRT. However it seems clear that even that will not be enough on its own.”
Guardians of the Galaxy comes out of this conflict “looking just awful,” he continues. “If they don’t do something drastic it’s only a matter of time before the agreement’s up and the Imperium hits them or someone else smells the blood in the water. Either way they will face that conflict weaker now than they are today. Continued conflict between Imperial Legacy and PanFam in the north is possible but unlikely, at least for a little while. Their best move is letting NC/PL/Horde get comfortable again, but moving before they have time to adapt to what Goons brought to the table in this fight.”
He believes that from the Imperium’s perspective, “The rental empires in the Dronelands must make tempting targets at a strategic level. Not the most fun for pilots, but winter is coming and people will be bored. That’s my personal bet for Goons next move IF, and it’s possibly a big if, they do anything at all except continue to expand their fleets and warchests.”
