[Editor’s Note: This article comes to us from Goonswarm Financial Director Aryth, and has been published as is]
We are going into the 6th month of the Lifeblood patch. For all of those months I have manipulated the moongoo and by extension the T2 market to insane levels. However, this isn’t something that is near completion and in reality, we are just getting going. The thing the cabal learned within the first few days after the patch is that overall supply, compared to pre-Lifeblood, is reduced a large amount. There is no way this wasn’t intentional on CCP’s part and it actually enables some really neat economic stuff for a couple years. In my exuberance, moments after we realized what the data was saying, I tweeted something to the effect of “We are pleased”. In hindsight, I should have said “We are about to run a train on EVE and get stupid rich and rub your faces in it”. There are several reasons for this but they all combine to generate scarcity right now that was initially controlled by all of the pre-patch speculators. Between the lower base supply counts, the lack of understanding the meta by the players still, bad frack layouts, player inefficiencies, and just a general glacial slowness of the ISK to be invested we have seen some shortfalls in supply. Given the remaining supply and stockpiles, there is no real danger to the T2 market as a whole but there is ample opportunity to make insane ISK as we meat grind the markets ever higher. However, pay attention to that last sentence. Therein lies the fun part. This is the most fun economically we have had in many years. The is gameplay that EVE has missed for a while. Enjoy it while it lasts for it will eventually sort itself out.
Full Pull: We ain’t there yet, hold me
Which brings up the biggest point of this post. We are nowhere near full pull yet. Yet, we are also the only remaining stockpiles of note. Mynnnas return to sell goo was a major event for the Cabal as it meant we now had another pressure relief valve from his trillions in personal stockpiles. So much so that I did an “all” broadcast announcing his sale. Everyone then went on to make 20% overnight. Good times.
It is likely at least 6 months before you see real full pull effects. This will re-balance the market yet again but not like I am going to wait that long. I have been hammering the markets and running up all r64 and r16 prices into the stratosphere compared to historical pricing. At each point in the manip I try to rebalance out the ratios before moving the market again. I have somewhat given up that pretense in the last 3 weeks as I just relentlessly hammer the markets and try to reveal any more stockpile holders. I fully intend to run r64s to 200K. The mechanics support it and it isn’t really that big a blow to the overall T2 market. We haven’t found equilibrium yet with demand. Think of me as the tip of the spear as we go and find that point. When full pull nears things are going to get whacky for a few months.
What is Next?
r64 prices will keep climbing and r16s along with them. Expect to go well north of 150K r64s and 35k r16s. r32s still have a ton of room too but we are focused on the warm pink center of the market. It is highly probable that I can do 200k r64s by end of year. Almost a sure thing short of some new mega player showing up or us finally reaching market demand drops. Old money stockpiles could extend this out a bit. Mynnna alone had a Jita month of several items and there is always the possibility, however remote, there are a few smaller players that add up to a Jita month or two combined.
Source all your inputs as cheaply and as large a scale as you can. I manipulate on a two-week cycle in general. As your outputs are coming out you are cashing into a massive profit as things are jacked by the time you get to market. It is a sure thing profit for everyone producing in Delve anyway. Source inputs locally when at ALL possible. This also dries up Jita and makes that sweet box ever tighter. Churn every ISK you can. All the many success stories of Goon newbies going from 2-4b to 30-100B in a few months aren’t over. They are just getting started.
Goons, If you are not reacting in Delve you need to be. Reactions is money printing as long as you have someone like me leading the charge. You cash out into prices far higher than you get in at. It is super newbie and low capital friendly and you can often get everything you need without leaving 1DQ market. At most, you set up a steady supply from a miner or buy in Jita. BE IN GS_ISK jabber! I telegraph all the moves in there prior to doing it. If you aren’t read here you are missing the big manip steps and profits.
Null Pubbies, if you are joe miner deep in a null region and not goons. React your crap too. Don’t send it to Jita. You are leaving money on the table if you do. Starve Jita of the raws and we all get richer. Or, just continue sending them to me for my ovens. At this point we are locked in and everyone else is just along to ride our coattails anyway.
Pubbies in highsec. You are going to be taken to the T2 ownzone. Expect to pay us a lot more for your T2 goods.
Thank you CCP for enabling something this grand in the economy. We haven’t had a good economic shakeup since Aegis and so it is pretty cool to watch years of planning pay off. Besides, who doesn’t love seeing market chaos as long as it doesn’t hurt the game. We are all Ferengi for a while.