Nobody really knows which candidates will make it to the CSM and which will not, but we can use our available resources to have a look at one possible outcome.
During the last week we have seen the ballots of different alliances appearing in various places. In addition to this we also know how the vote is conducted thanks to CCP providing the script that is used to determine the result of the STV-system.
STV stands for SINGLE TRANSFERABLE VOTE:
What this means is that your vote counts more in different circumstances. The system is complicated so we just go through a simple example.
Let’s assume you have voted for candidates A, B, and C.
- If nothing special happens candidate A gets your vote.
- If A drops out of the election due to any reason B gets your complete vote
- If A has more than enough votes to get elected B will receive a part of your vote
- If B has enough votes to get elected, C will receive part of your vote
There is a video here explaining STV from CGP Grey
So if you want to just vote for one candidate you can do that. But your vote is more powerful if you fill in all the slots or at least all the candidates you consider worth your vote.
Known ballots
On Noizygamer’s Website CSM Wire we can find 9 different ballots for the following alliances/coalitions:
- Army of New Eden
- Badfellas Inc.
- Brothers of Tangra
- Circle-of-Two
- DARKNESS.
- Hedonistic Imperative
- Imperium
- Lin Kuei Kokuryukai
- Pandemic Horde
I added the Legio de Mortem ballot that I found on Reddit. I also excluded the CVA ballot due to Jin’taan saying that this is not official and just his recommendations.
Voting power
If we add up the different members of the coalitions we get the following maximum possible voting power (assuming each member of an alliance is on a separate account):
| Imperium | 35052 |
| Pandemic Horde | 12752 |
| WERMT-BOT-NC-PL | 12162 |
| DARKNESS. | 12160 |
| Circle-of-Two | 5389 |
| Badfellas Inc. | 2135 |
| Army of New Eden | 1137 |
| Legio de Mortem | 1137 |
| Hedonistic Imperative | 441 |
| Lin Kuei Kokuryukai | 334 |
Result
To get to any kind of result with our known ballots we have to assume that everybody in those coalitions/alliances votes and stays with the ballot.
After generating a file to represent all the votes cast(reach out to me if you want to run the data yourself) we can put all of this data through the script from CCP.
| Aryth | 35052.0 |
| Vince Draken | 13299.0 |
| Kalbuir Skirate | 12752.0 |
| Sort Dragon | 12160.0 |
| Innominate | 27533.0 |
| Sullen Decimus | 20014.0 |
| Jin’taan | 13632.0 |
| The Judge | 11433.1349032 |
| Dancul1001 | 10930.8650968 |
| Yukiko Kami | 8599.83515506 |
The number of votes is higher than the totals in the voting power section because votes trickle down. The first four people in the table above would get into CSM using just the votes cast for them as the top position on the ticket, everyone else relies on trickle down votes at each round of elimination.
My take from this
It was pretty clear from the outset of this experiment that the result would be very nullsec heavy. Considering we only have alliances from nullsec in the simulation.
But the numbers we are seeing are not really that far apart in the end. If I add a ballot with Toxic Yaken, Roedyn, and Commander Aze to the list with a voting power of 5000 we get Toxic Yaken in the CSM. So somebody from the highsec ticket would be able to get into the CSM even without a whole coalition backing him. So please don’t cry about the voting being rigged, All people eligible to vote are responsible for a null dominated CSM. If you want something else or just stir things up a bit. Go vote.
If anybody wants to reach out to test some crazy theories, get the data used or just wants to have a talk just reach out.
Also shoutout to Noizygamer for doing a lot of the work for me by posting those ballots.
