CSM Forecast Based On Nullsec Ballots

Goschti 2017-03-13

Nobody really knows which candidates will make it to the CSM and which will not, but we can use our available resources to have a look at one possible outcome.

During the last week we have seen the ballots of different alliances appearing in various places. In addition to this we also know how the vote is conducted thanks to CCP providing the script that is used to determine the result of the STV-system.

STV stands for SINGLE TRANSFERABLE VOTE:
What this means is that your vote counts more in different circumstances. The system is complicated so we just go through a simple example.
Let’s assume you have voted for candidates A, B, and C.

  • If nothing special happens candidate A gets your vote.
  • If A drops out of the election due to any reason B gets your complete vote
  • If A has more than enough votes to get elected B will receive a part of your vote
  • If B has enough votes to get elected, C will receive part of your vote

There is a video here explaining STV from CGP Grey


So if you want to just vote for one candidate you can do that. But your vote is more powerful if you fill in all the slots or at least all the candidates you consider worth your vote.

Known ballots

On Noizygamer’s Website CSM Wire we can find 9 different ballots for the following alliances/coalitions:

  • Army of New Eden
  • Badfellas Inc.
  • Brothers of Tangra
  • Circle-of-Two
  • DARKNESS.
  • Hedonistic Imperative
  • Imperium
  • Lin Kuei Kokuryukai
  • Pandemic Horde

I added the Legio de Mortem ballot that I found on Reddit. I also excluded the CVA ballot due to Jin’taan saying that this is not official and just his recommendations.

 

Voting power

If we add up the different members of the coalitions we get the following maximum possible voting power (assuming each member of an alliance is on a separate account):

Imperium 35052
Pandemic Horde 12752
WERMT-BOT-NC-PL 12162
DARKNESS. 12160
Circle-of-Two 5389
Badfellas Inc. 2135
Army of New Eden 1137
Legio de Mortem 1137
Hedonistic Imperative 441
Lin Kuei Kokuryukai 334

Result

To get to any kind of result with our known ballots we have to assume that everybody in those coalitions/alliances votes and stays with the ballot.
After generating a file to represent all the votes cast(reach out to me if you want to run the data yourself) we can put all of this data through the script from CCP.

Aryth 35052.0
Vince Draken 13299.0
Kalbuir Skirate 12752.0
Sort Dragon 12160.0
Innominate 27533.0
Sullen Decimus 20014.0
Jin’taan 13632.0
The Judge 11433.1349032
Dancul1001 10930.8650968
Yukiko Kami 8599.83515506

The number of votes is higher than the totals in the voting power section because votes trickle down.  The first four people in the table above would get into CSM using just the votes cast for them as the top position on the ticket, everyone else relies on trickle down votes at each round of elimination.

My take from this

It was pretty clear from the outset of this experiment that the result would be very nullsec heavy. Considering we only have alliances from nullsec in the simulation.
But the numbers we are seeing are not really that far apart in the end. If I add a ballot with Toxic Yaken, Roedyn, and Commander Aze to the list with a voting power of 5000 we get Toxic Yaken in the CSM. So somebody from the highsec ticket would be able to get into the CSM even without a whole coalition backing him. So please don’t cry about the voting being rigged, All people eligible to vote are responsible for a null dominated CSM. If you want something else or just stir things up a bit. Go vote.

If anybody wants to reach out to test some crazy theories, get the data used or just wants to have a talk just reach out.

Also shoutout to Noizygamer for doing a lot of the work for me by posting those ballots.

 

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Comments

  • The oracle

    Should FCON&Co vote like Legio de Morte, then Erika has a very decent shot at getting a seat at the table, despite being a highsec-candidate. Excluding Provi’s recommendation feels odd, since most of the other ballots are also “only” suggestion and might see less traction than the one from CVA.
    Since you include RMC into the Imperium for whatever reason, it only seems logical to also include TEST in the numbers for the CO2-ballot, even though they have stated that they are free to vote however they want. This would give The Judge very good chance at getting into the CSM.

    Brave will also vote for Yukki, even though it won’t matter since I very much doubt he will be able to gather enough votes to reach the threshold, but once he gets eliminated, their votes go over to Pandemic Horde, giving them an even better chance.

    Overall I don’t see Toxic, Roedyn nor Commander Aze making it into the CSM. Should Pandemic Horde have enough active non-alpha players, they might actually get someone into the CSM pushing out either Erika, Steven, Noobman or Sullen.

    I agree with Aryth, Innominate, Jintaan, The Judge, Vince Draken and Sort Dragon basically having a save spot. Should PL be able to work some voting-vodoo with their renters they might get Dancul in, too.

    March 13, 2017 at 1:29 pm
  • Rhivre

    I always like the hypothetical “What If” permutations in the CSM (and RL).
    For me, this was an interesting way of seeing the weighting that candidates would be expected to have.

    Of course, there are 64 candidates in the ballot this year, which is 10 up on last year, but, a large number of them will be expected to get a very low number of votes (there were 20 candidates last year with under 200 votes when they were eliminated), and the people on the null ballots could feasibly be expected to have higher amounts of votes, especially those in the higher positions.

    I expect people like Steve Ronuken, Suitonia and Rhiload to have a strong showing from outside the blocs (and potentially from inside blocs, as often people vote for the top few in the bloc then fill in their own slots further down)

    For me, this gives a way of seeing how closely the bloc ballots were followed on election day, I think the results will be somewhat different from what you have here, but, nonetheless, calculating “What If” scenarios is one of the fun things for elections.

    March 13, 2017 at 2:12 pm
  • It’s all about the turnout. I even see a scenario where Innominate fails to get reelected, although that possibility seems to be receding. A lot depends on whether the Goon GOTV operation returns to pre CSM 11 election performance, Brave resumes their historically successful GOTV efforts after taking last year off, and the percentage of non-voting Alpha accounts in Pandemic Horde. One other thing. Never count on renters to turn out for you.

    March 13, 2017 at 4:04 pm
    • Rhivre NoizyGamer

      Turnout will definitely be interesting. Rumour is that it is up on last year, but of course, we will have to wait until Fanfest to find out.

      The PH Alpha accounts are definitely something that will play into their ballot, and, as you say, relying on renters to vote for you (As per the NC/PL/BOT ticket) also makes the outcome more difficult to predict

      March 13, 2017 at 4:22 pm
      • Lekly Rhivre

        I thought that Alpha accounts couldn’t vote. Wouldn’t that artificially inflate the expected numbers of groups that are Alpha clone heavy?

        March 13, 2017 at 4:30 pm
        • Rhivre Lekly

          Yes, they cannot vote, which is why, say, Pandemic Horde expected voters may be inflated to a greater or lesser degree

          March 13, 2017 at 5:05 pm
    • Goschti NoizyGamer

      There are a lot of variables to this. I just took the data and went this way to get to any result at all. Stuff like renters, alphas, and alts all have their part in it. I just went this way because you could probably discuss about the composition of alliances for a few days without coming to a conclusion.

      But turnout will be the most important factor. Between the reduction of seats and the high number of candidates I hope to see some surprises happen.

      March 13, 2017 at 5:02 pm
    • Matterall NoizyGamer

      ” Never count on renters to turn out for you.” true, but it depends on the relationship, because some renters are null sec pvper’s alts…. but I suppose they would count as bloc voters if their mains were null-sec pvpers

      March 14, 2017 at 7:53 pm
  • Xenuria

    Hi, I am Xenuria.

    March 13, 2017 at 4:47 pm
    • Rhivre Xenuria

      Hi Xenuria! Good luck on the election!

      March 13, 2017 at 5:06 pm
    • WMWMWMWMWMWMWMWMWMW Xenuria

      xenuria for csm every csm

      March 14, 2017 at 8:07 pm
  • deathseeker

    God keep Sort Dragon out dude needs to get a Job! He just wants to be cool with vince and killah b

    March 14, 2017 at 2:51 am
  • NCCBrokeMyChair

    Screw these nullsec blobs. (Some of them really are – err bad fellas) Vote WH space!

    March 15, 2017 at 2:48 am
  • Apothne

    How close is Suitonia to getting on the CSM based on that model?

    March 16, 2017 at 8:01 am
    • Goschti Apothne

      Suitonia would need an additional 5262 slot one votes to get on instead of Yukiko Kami

      March 17, 2017 at 6:27 pm