O-EIMK: The Culmination of PAPI’s Sins

2021-05-30

Header art by Major Sniper

It has been a long war, hasn’t it? What started on July 5th, 2020 seems like it may go on for far longer. To put it into comparison terms, the Glassing of Tribute took one month; one month is all it took for the Imperium to burn down a region. It has taken PAPI eight months to burn three and most of one with a numerical advantage far greater than the one enjoyed by the Imperium in the Glassing of Tribute, not to mention that PAPI also is enjoying the new Cynojammer mechanics. The last constellation of O-EIMK is proving to be by far the most difficult for PAPI. So why is it a problem now?

The Sin of Numerical Superiority

N+1 is often accepted as the end-all be-all in the nullsec community. While it holds some truth that outnumbering your opponents will grant the best chance to win, it isn’t everything. There are, ironically, inherent disadvantages with outnumbering your opponent in EVE Online. Let us look at a couple, starting with complacency.

Outnumbering your opponents is better reflected in the idea of brute force. There is little to no finesse in N+1, as it simply involves smashing your opponents and giving them little room to survive or win. When this becomes your bread and butter tactic, it breeds complacency, not to mention complete humiliation when it goes horribly wrong. A prime example of this is “The Sinking of the Locusttina,” in which The Imperium, confident in its super fleet’s power, became complacent in its Rorqual mining and lost many Rorquals in a trap well executed by PanFam. Brute force is seemingly mindless, because it requires little strategy or execution by nature. But ultimately, brute force is seen as a sin by many since it doesn’t require people to fulfill their potential. What moments in video games are you most proud of? Almost certainly not those moments where you were sure to win, but rather, those moments where you won against great odds, took on the Boss fight when you really should have leveled more, but you learned techniques and tricks from such battles. Those that rely on simply smashing will likely never learn anything new – until their complacency is exploited.

A second “sin” involves participation. Most followers are more intelligent than many leaders give them credit for. When they are not really needed, most people know it. In EVE that translates into fewer bodies showing up to fight. This makes it difficult for large organizations, as they need to convince their members to show up to win. It appears, due to PAPI’s declining participation, that an ever growing number of PAPI members feel that the war is no longer worth their time and effort. But this strategy of depending on vast numbers can compound yet another problem.

The Sin of Sloth

PAPI’s pace in this war has been very slow and methodical. The core of PAPI’s strategy relies on: 

  1. Outnumber Your Opponent in Open Space IHUB Fights
  2. Wait 30 days
  3. Online a Jammer
  4. Clear the System

Now, this strategy is quite telling of PAPI’s goals in this war. Note that the strategy doesn’t include the destruction of the Imperium, as many in PAPI claim, but merely the space and the structures the Imperium lives in. The problem being that the Imperium is far more than just iHubs and Keepstars. It is, at its core, a player organization just as PAPI is. At its heart are its members, which need to be broken in order to end this war. Due in part to PAPI’s slow pace, battles showing PAPI’s numerical advantage are slipping away from them, as war exhaustion appears to set in for some of its members. While the Imperium has seen its fair share of exhaustion, it does not appear to be near the scale that it is for PAPI. This indicates, at least in part, that PAPI’s slow pace appears to be costing them in bodies on the front lines at an unsustainable rate to maintain a push.

The Sin of Avoidance

As we discussed earlier, PAPI’s strategy relies on removing the space and structures that the Imperium lives in. Since the Imperium has not been able to defend Keepstars in most situations, it has not expended many mobile resources in this war. The bulk of these mobile resources lies in their supercapital fleet. With the most powerful supercapital fleet in existence in EVE Online, the Imperium’s fighting power remains largely the same. Though the supercapital fleet does not enjoy the freedom of movement it once did before the war, due to the final location of the war, this doesn’t help PAPI in the final stretch. 

In the final constellation of O-EIMK, the Imperium enjoys not only less time to get to its destination, but, due to the Imperium’s Cynojammers, also enjoys the currently uncontested (at least in the O-EIMK constellation) supercapital umbrella. Had PAPI opted to grind their currently useless supercapital fleet and the Imperium’s supercapital fleets into dust in engagements similar to the first M2-XFE fight, breaking into O-EIMK would be considerably easier, even with their now only slight numerical advantage. And now, because of avoiding supercapital engagements, PAPI has to deal with fighter mechanics en masse.

The problem for PAPI lies in the binary nature of fighters. Unlike the ships that launch the fighters, fighters themselves are very small, roughly about the signature radius of a fit shield destroyer. Fighters themselves do not fare well against small ships that not only take little damage from them, but are able to track and kill fighters quite well. The problem with small ships is they mostly fare poorly in taking or holding objectives against other subcap doctrines without a very large numerical advantage. The other common option is to take anti-support ships such as rapid light missile Caracals or ships that fit a similar role. However, ultimately these ships do not trade well with fighters because of how cheap fighters are to build and are also easily countered by other subcap doctrines. I said earlier, that complacency has cost PAPI potential, but at this point in time they can no longer be complacent. I look forward to the creative strategy they come up with to deal with this problem if and when they solve it.

Conclusion

PAPI started this war with a monsterous numerical advantage. PAPI itself is quite the achievement. PAPI has replaced the Imperium as the largest player organization in Eve Online. But as time goes on, it appears the advantages that PAPI have enjoyed over the course of the war seem to be slipping away from them. At this inflection point, PAPI’s superfleet does them little good. As we come into what should be the final stages of the war, PAPI’s sins could result in an embarrassing loss against what should be, by what I have seen many PAPI members say, an entirely inferior foe.

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Comments

  • Carvj94

    “While the Imperium has seen its fair share of exhaustion, it does not appear to be near the scale that it is for PAPI. This indicates, at least in part, that PAPI’s slow pace appears to be costing them in bodies on the front lines at an unsustainable rate to maintain a push.”

    Actually the main reason the Imperium isn’t facing so much war exhaustion, in my opinion, is likely because PAPI have reliably been starting timers and showing up for them no matter the target. This means that the Imperium can form up for not only every important timer but nearly any timer they want on their many many non strategic structures. Which means a large majority of the fight the Imperium gets into are big and relatively fun slugfests between fleets. Meanwhile PAPI is spending a majority of their time doing relatively boring structure bashes.

    May 30, 2021 at 7:39 AM
    • Eve_Osir1s Carvj94

      Yes and no. I think this is part of the truth. But, Truth be told the Imperium has had a brilliant morale campaign. I’ll hopefully be writing a koolaid drenched article on that topic. Because, in my humble opinion, the Imperium’s morale campaign has been utterly brilliant and is a testament that our leadership understands psychology better than our enemies.

      May 30, 2021 at 9:41 AM
      • Carvj94 Eve_Osir1s

        Oh for sure. The Imperium easily has highest quality propaganda available in EVE along with the best memes. I was just suggesting that the quality of fights was mostly the reason not the only reason.

        May 30, 2021 at 8:13 PM
  • Eve_Osir1s

    Fine work again INN editors!

    May 30, 2021 at 8:01 AM
  • Moomin Amatin

    The Imperium was and is smaller than both The Legacy and PanDaFam in space held and member count. A small correction but an important one I think given PAPI’s inclination to ignore this serious flaw to one of the reasons they offered for starting the war.

    This is now the 6th week of the “siege” and there has been no progress by PAPI. Numbers in T5Z are getting lower and lower also. People are voting with their feet I think.

    May 30, 2021 at 8:14 AM
    • Eve_Osir1s Moomin Amatin

      Agree. I think many are seeing the writing on the wall. But we must be vigilant, one false move could see fate turn against us. No huuubris are Asher would say 😛

      May 30, 2021 at 9:38 AM
      • Garreth Vlox Eve_Osir1s

        They might also be smelling the smoke from their burning home regions. Even horde home space is no longer safe.

        May 30, 2021 at 7:50 PM
  • Guilford Australis

    The headshot of 1DQ that Gobbins promised PanFam (a promise he later retracted with his hilariously pathetic statement that those who were expecting something big in 1DQ would be disappointed) was much more likely to succeed when The Imperium was still spread out in Delve.

    But PAPI are noted cowards who foolishly corralled their enemies into a heavily-reinforced constellation with only two entry gates. Gobbins said the use of supercapitals against The Imperium is unlikely (presumably due to PAPI’s failures in M2-), and PGL said even capitals will only be used if The Imperium attacks outside the constellation. Good luck making progress under those conditions.

    PGL and Vily promised the “extermination” of The Imperium, and Gobbins promised that 1DQ would burn. Now both of those promises have been memory-holed due to the cowardice of PAPI’s war strategy, and PAPI line members dutifully drool that those things were all just sabre-rattling and war talk, totally insincere, never meant to be the factual statements they clearly were.

    May 30, 2021 at 12:12 PM
    • Eve_Osir1s Guilford Australis

      More or less their mouths tried to write a check their ass couldn’t cash 😛

      May 30, 2021 at 1:03 PM
    • Seir Luciel Guilford Australis

      M2 proved PAPI could be reckless, to a fault, though also eliminating the idea that we were “cowards.” This is one of the ways Goon narrative likes to have it both ways; once pushing all your chips forward at M2 gets filtered through the Goon propaganda machine PAPI is both stupid for having done it but also still cowards the entire war.

      The “extermination” thing: no, it didn’t go down the memory hole any more than wizard hat went down the memory hole for goons. Vily walked it back; Goons were right: it wasn’t a war goal PAPI able to fulfill in any technical sense. So he walked it back, which was the right thing to do. If you put your foot in your mouth you take it out, admit you misspoke, and move on. So we didn’t memory-hole it: PAPI members moved on and gave Vily some grace. There’s a difference.

      As far as Gobbins statement goes, I think 1DQ burning is still the plan.

      May 30, 2021 at 2:59 PM
      • Guilford Australis Seir Luciel

        I’d definitely characterize the decision not to log in an entire coalition’s supercapital fleet after down time, trapping it under hostile pressure, then not log it in for two entire months afterward out of fear of the prospect of a big fight with Goon supercapitals, later saying supercapitals would not be used again because of anxiety over a repeat of M2-, and refusing to engage in any major operations until a system has been I-Hub nuked, held for 35 days, and cyno jammed to be evidence of cowardice.

        Yeah, I’m willing to go on record with that pretty obvious observation.

        May 30, 2021 at 3:31 PM
        • Jeet_Kundo Guilford Australis

          Exactly. Their entire approach screams self-preservation. If they aren’t 100% they have a strong advantage, then the operation is scuttled: M2 is the most shining example of this. They entered believing they were postured to wipe off the fleet with minimal losses to their own, shit happened, and the perceived advantage was lost. Instead of still taking the opportunity to push the objective, they surrendered their fleet for months, and sparing ours further losses in the process

          May 30, 2021 at 7:45 PM
        • Seir Luciel Guilford Australis

          Being wasteful isn’t being brave. It’s just being wasteful. Even when Goons call you cowards.

          May 31, 2021 at 3:33 AM
          • Moomin Amatin Seir Luciel

            Yet you talk about M2 as if it was a brave move on the part of PAPI. M2 was the most wasteful thing I have ever witnessed in New Eden. That “in-cyno”…… .

            Also as you like your economics. How much has been lost by PAPI by continuing to persue this war? Also include lost opportunities from having the PAPI capital fleet stuck in M2-X for 2 months. This war should have been done in three months – lol. Yet here you are a year on talking about not being wasteful.

            May 31, 2021 at 3:49 AM
          • Seir Luciel Moomin Amatin

            Yet you talk about M2 as if it was a brave move on the part of PAPI.

            “Bravery” and “cowardice” are ideological terms. I’m not here to assigne one or the other to either group; not really. I’m more interested in success/failure vs. brave/cowardly. But since Goons like tossing around the ideological brave/cowardly dichotomy, I am always interested in what methodology is used to apply said terms.

            I’m suspicious that, at it’s simplest, it comes down to Goon-brave/Enemy-coward, regardless of their actions or contexts. If Goons retreat/pass, its strategic; if PAPI, its cowardice. If Goons attack, its brave; if PAPI, its cowardly since they outnumber Goons. There’s no winning.

            June 1, 2021 at 2:31 AM
          • Moomin Amatin Seir Luciel

            “war of extermination” is also an ideological term which people seem to like to varying degrees.

            1 Year. 150k vs 50k. Largest mega-coalition ever created. The self proclaimed best FC team New Eden has ever seen. The largest super cache in history. Declarations that goons only krab and can only blob.

            I was in local for months where PAPI members and leadership would echo sentiments about how much they were going to “fuck goons up”. Only after M2-X did that goalpost start to move.

            The reality is that even now PAPI leadership have no plan to take 1DQ. 1 year after this war started and PAPI still has no plan other than hoping goons log off or leave. I am suspicious that this war has other motives and now to say goons are too strong again is to enable the “wardens”.

            Also remember, The Imperium was asked first. All this talk of too strong or too big is to support the PAPI war lies.

            June 1, 2021 at 7:15 AM
          • Novartis Seir Luciel

            You want to know why Goons keep saying this? Ever know the name of Lanchester law?

            To keep it simple, it says that to overcome PAPI 3:1 superiority in number, Goons need to have a weapon at the squared amount of ratio PAPI outnumber the Goons, which is 9 times. Start to see the effect? Here I also haven’t factor in all the profit that in theory, should be generated in more than three-fourth of null controlled by PAPI. Let’s say in the most considerate way, PAPI outnumber Goons production three to one, then there’s another square law we need to see, where to match PAPI production, Goons need to be 9 times more efficient in producing their war assets. This is the ideal scenario, which both won’t be possible at first. You can’t win a fight with a need to be 9 times more effective fighting and producing vs your enemy that have three times the number of player and three times as much territory as you. But what do we see here? Where’s all the flaunted assets go? Where’s all the said best strageist and theorycrafter go to?

            This is just my observation to what the war now. If PAPI want to go this method, going to methodically break imperium assets one by one, they should, in fact, go storm the 1DQ at front, burn one of their KS. Just one is enough. That’s the show of force needed, the justification fully needed for the moral and the strategical objective fullfilment. By burning one of 1DQ KS, you show that you CAN at any time burn imperium, not only talk, but you actually do it. ONLY after that if you go structure bash for months, there won’t be much issue with the propaganda side. You have give the show that you can barge to 1DQ, burn the KS and ready to pay the butcher bill, and the methodical destruction of all imperium assets at delve outside of OEIMK have the justification of the eradication as you say. It give a much more effect that imperium life is trully in PAPI hand and they have the full say to eradicate imperium from delve completely. You get the objective, breaking the imperium pride in 1DQ defense, while chipping all their structure. But now? Imperium pride is still all high because one thing. 1DQ, the light of hope of all imperium is still shining brightly, untouched by the war.

            June 1, 2021 at 10:43 AM
          • J Moravia Seir Luciel

            Being wasteful isn’t being brave. It’s just being wasteful.

            When you outnumber your opponents 3:1, it’s okay to be a little bit wasteful.

            June 8, 2021 at 4:46 PM
      • Vertigoe Seir Luciel

        M2 was not PAPI standing up and taking the fight, they were forced into that fight screaming and kicking. Their failure to login after downtime only solidified their cowardice and set up the 3 month hellcamp that cost them 4t isk in dreads to extract from.

        And another 3t isk in titans that have yet to be reimbursed from that fight.

        May 30, 2021 at 3:52 PM
        • Seir Luciel Vertigoe

          M2 was not PAPI standing up and taking the fight, they were forced into that fight screaming and kicking.

          Everything I’ve heard is that they didn’t have to jump, but they did anyway. Where’s the “screaming and kicking?”

          May 31, 2021 at 3:30 AM
          • Moomin Amatin Seir Luciel

            M2-X revision again?

            May 31, 2021 at 3:45 AM
          • Vertigoe Seir Luciel

            You are speaking of the armor timer. Which was full of epic levels of hubris, I am referencing the shield timer which with your knowledge of the 2 fights I am sure you are aware.

            May 31, 2021 at 3:57 AM
      • Moomin Amatin Seir Luciel

        This is fantasy on your part I am afraid – lol.

        M2 proved PAPI were cowards. The moment they failed to log back in after the armour timer is when M2 was lost. Were they reckless as well with the final timer that led to the slaughter of so many valued allies? Yes. Of that there is no doubt. From my experience cowards are reckless, especially with the assets of others. We can of course have our respective views.

        But with the “extermination” thing. Oh no you do not. My piece called “Narratives go nuclear” has Piggles using the same rhetoric late November. Now you are saying this did not happen? That PAPI members did not scream the same stuff in local as they crept towards 1DQ? It was the defeaning silence of 2 months after M2 that gave PAPI pause for thought on that front. You then say that “1DQ burning is still the plan”? Are you sure? As if it was the plan then you would have thought the self-proclaimed most experienced FC team in the history of the game would have a plan after a year of war for attacking the very thing they said they would attack. Yet “blarpies” – lol. What next? Battle Badgers?

        Speaking of PH, the funniest bit about their stated objectives is that the “economic harm” one that they had easily met back in December was all undone a few days later. Every day this war goes on the economic harm is being undone more and more.

        Anyhoo you keep on with your revisionist nonsense and I will keep linking the sources where your leaders say the very things you say they do not. 1DQ awaits, still.

        May 30, 2021 at 6:11 PM
        • Seir Luciel Moomin Amatin

          There’s no revisionism; M2 showed what happened when PAPI threw caution to the wind against an enemy like Goons who aren’t going to let that kind of maneuver go unpunished. They weren’t cowardly; they were unsuccessful. But since then, quite naturally, PAPI has been a great deal more cautious.

          I would even say they have been as cautions as Goons were for a great deal of the war, as PAPI structure bashes went uncontested over and over. Were Goons cowards, time after time, letting keepstar after keepstar fall without so much as a dictor to impede PAPI progression? No. Goons weren’t cowards, even though many PAPI members taunted them in the local.

          Why? Because being suicidal isn’t being brave, its just throwing away resources. Goons have strategically stockpiled their resources to be used at a defensive choke point, what PAPI faces right now. If Goons had tossed their stuff away recklessly before hand, defending structure bashes all over Fountain and Delve, there would be less right now.

          In the same way, PAPI employs caution to minimize wasteful expenditures. Goons cry “cowards” but if the alternative is simply being wasteful, its no kind bravery. Anyone can get their ship blown up for nothing; in EVE, that’s not very hard. Taking 1DQ? That’s hard. But we mean to do it.

          May 31, 2021 at 3:29 AM
          • Moomin Amatin Seir Luciel

            PAPI threw caution to the wind? Are you sure about that? Are we talking about a different set of battles in M2-X? There has been way to much written and said for anyone to actually give what you are presenting here any credibility.

            You keep saying you are taking 1DQ and yet your leaders have no plan on how to do that after a whole year. 1 year! Yet you still insist that your leaders are being honest with you. Good luck with that one.

            May 31, 2021 at 3:42 AM
      • Garreth Vlox Seir Luciel

        “M2 proved PAPI could be reckless, to a fault, though also eliminating the idea that we were “cowards.”

        LOL, no vily thought if he dumped all those players into m2- the game would become so unstable that both sides would suffer massive logout and crash issues allowing him to once again cowardly hide behind his massive numbers advantage and try to swing the fight to his side. Even in the act of making his “bravest” attempt at winning he was still trying to hide behind something to bring the imperium down to his idiot like level. And the split SECOND it failed to work he curled up in the corner for two months and did NOTHING, the guy has a spine like slinky.

        May 30, 2021 at 7:48 PM
      • Mr Augur Seir Luciel

        If 1dq is still a burning plan for Gobbins then TTT is also a burning plan in someone’s head but both are so distant in the future that I’m not sure any one participating in current War will even be among living. In other words I saw how this War star, your Kids if you got any will see how it ends.

        May 31, 2021 at 12:05 AM
  • kwnyupstate .

    With a small numbers advantage they can’t beat Imperium when a lot of Imperium numbers are in capitals. They need a big numbers advantage to succeed against the fighters and an even larger one to kill the capital ships themselves.
    PAPI is quick to point out how they haven’t turned on each other however if they really weren’t worried about turning on each other why not sacrifice the capitals needed to attempt to defeat the Imperium?
    If the whole universe is blue to each other you don’t need to worry about diminishing your respective capital forces.

    May 30, 2021 at 2:28 PM
    • Vertigoe kwnyupstate .

      Since they are comprised of all independent alliances, no alliance wants to sacrifice it’s capital supremacy over the other to achieve capital supremacy over Imperium.

      May 30, 2021 at 3:55 PM
      • kwnyupstate . Vertigoe

        Which is why PAPI won’t put in what is needed to attempt to defeat the Imperium.

        May 30, 2021 at 7:11 PM
    • Jeet_Kundo kwnyupstate .

      Bringing up they haven’t turned on each other “yet” makes PGL a poor poker player. It’s a concern that he’s made public

      May 30, 2021 at 6:54 PM
  • Garreth Vlox

    “Outnumber Your Opponent in Open Space IHUB Fights
    Wait 30 days
    Online a Jammer
    Clear the System”

    To be hence forth known as the “vily special”, AKA the “hide from fights while “fighting” a war” strategy.

    May 30, 2021 at 7:38 PM
    • Carvj94 Garreth Vlox

      Even after leaving goonswarn it seems progod and villy still specialize in blueballing enemies of the Imperium lol.

      May 30, 2021 at 8:19 PM