PAPI’s Big Announcement: Some Speculation

2021-07-21

Header art by Elthar Nox

If you are interested in anything nullsec, or the great war currently going on, then you will have undoubtedly heard that there is a “big” announcement coming on the 24th of this month. It’s a day being heralded as the next coming of PAPI, a day that will, some hope, live in the history books of EVE. Perhaps it will be the day that PAPI finally finds their collective testes. Let’s not hold our breath though. Will this announcement actually amount to something worthy of a week’s worth of hype? Or will it simply fail to satisfy, like the big “subcaps-in-1DQ announcement,” or the “booshers-are-the-answer” proclamation?

Noraus pushing the event
PGL hyping the announcement

So, as it is only natural for me, a long-term EVE player, with a huge interest in null-sec politics, to have spent a little time pondering what this large announcement could be. Let me make this clear; I have sources who have given some information. However, nothing is concrete just yet. But, before the announcement is put into the EVE political sphere, it will have already leaked, for the one thing to remember with the PAPI leadership is that ego drives them, and if they think they have a fantastic plan, they are driven to share that plan to empower that ego. You remember this, of course, from how the war began.

What could the announcement be, I hear you ask? Let’s take a swift look at what the options are.

End the TTC agreement 

This option is one that is well within the ability of PAPI to pull off. However, destroying the Keepstar in Perimeter is also an option that Imperium has at its disposal. Many PAPI members keep on suggesting that this is something that should have been done at the onset of hostilities. 

Likelihood: Unlikely

Full summer campaign against 1DQ

Coinciding with the above option, PAPI could use the end of the TTC agreement to drive up support for the war. However, given the inability of other similar announcements to improve numbers, I hope PAPI leadership is aware that this option simply retains the status quo. If this is the option they take, then it essentially means PAPI has no idea what it is doing, which may not be surprising, given the leaks we have seen recently. 

Likelihood: Most probable

SRP Increase

With the recent announcement of regional banks being unlocked, it is well known that this is something Gobbins wants to exploit. I imagine the announcement may entail all of PAPI working together to create a key-trading scheme that allows alliances to take ISK from their own regional banks. However, this issue is one that will undoubtedly create hostilities in the already struggling mega-coalition. No two banks will be equal, so two like-for-like keys may not payout at the same rate. Additionally, keeping all members in line when the keys are released will be a full-time job for internal staff. The bank ISK will probably be used to shore up some SRP programs that clearly need the help. However, this move would be an attempt to improve morale with ISK that has not materialized yet. Therefore, it would be another announcement that doesn’t really change a thing. 

Likelihood: Probable.

Panfam and Legacy Merge

With the leadership of PAPI knowing that “carefully” laid plans are no longer working the way they planned, and that internal strife is at an all-time high, both Panfam and Legacy know that they are in this for the long haul. What better way to ensure they are capable of assisting each other than to merge? This isn’t as likely as the above; however, crazier things have occurred in EVE. The one thing that will stop this merge from happening is the ego of those at the top. Will Vily and Progodlegend really want to share power with Gobbins or Vince, for example?

Likelihood: Unlikely.

Egos and desperation everywhere!

One option I refused to put on this list is a full withdrawal. Why? Because the people pushing this campaign simply don’t understand how to deal with their own failures. Their egos simply will not allow for it. It doesn’t matter if they destroy tons of content in the process and damage EVE Online (more than they already have). Their own desires come before anything else.

In all honesty, the announcement is most likely to be fluff in an effort to assuage the egos of the PAPI leadership who are currently fighting off any form of introspection regarding either their leadership capabilities or the absolute shambles their campaigns are in. 

With an all-time low of bums on seats for their coalitions, the PAPI leadership simply want to save face with their members. The only way to do this is to promise announcement after announcement, just to provide a slight sliver of hope for a membership that is losing faith in its leadership.

While all of this is ongoing, T5Z looks like this.

Desperation is in the air for PAPI

Let us wait and see what happens. I am, however, willing to bet this desperate attempt at hyping is just another situation where the egos sitting at the top of PAPI are simply not willing to see the writing on the wall.

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Comments

  • Moomin Amatin

    Two weeks ago Gobbins (PH leader) and Vince Draken (NC leader) both said to their line members that they were taking a couple of months off. Lots of stuff about how people were going outside and how much PAPI leadership values every one of their members time. Then, for reasons that probably have nothing to do at all with Original Sinners leaving NC taking 10% of the alliance membership and pretty much the complete NC US TZ, there is now a “big announcement” on the 24th of July 2021.

    Fraternity leader Noraus has also been kind enough to tell of their plans for the immediate future. Part of these plans is to “steal” from nullsec entities who are not blue. Here’s looking at you Legacy as Frat have history with you as some of you may remember. AoM are most certainly a target of interest for Frat and there will not likely be a better time for Frat to strike than around now. Noraus also used language such as “war ending” and “within 60 days”.

    PAPI leadership are in crisis management mode I think. So many promises made and none delivered. Excuses for failure every single time with no accepting responsibility. PAPI even talk of “server caps” and other made up nonsense to excuse their lack of progress. Where the reality is that server performance actually saved PAPI more than once from an even greater humiliating defeat. Meanwhile PAPI leadership continue to ping doctored battle reports and spout hollow words of “strategic objective completed” or “we are just probing them”.

    PAPI have three options at this time. Advance, withdraw or hold. Holding is what created this emergency for PAPI in the first place. Withdrawal is an option for some alliances and some would even argue that some PAPI members have not featured in the war for a long time. That leaves us with “advance” as the only option that makes sense to PAPI as a whole. But “advance” on who and with what is becoming trickier to work out, just ask AoM – heh.

    I do think that PAPI will again continue to just make up stuff as they see fit as they know that their line members have swallowed all the previous lies. Over a year for a war that should have taken 3 months. Even now I see PAPI members talk of “well mittens said that fountain was a fortress and that every KS would be fought for”. When asked for the link to this nothing is ever presented and we all know that if Mittens is set on something then he says it a lot. In fact thinking about this, the one thing I can assure PAPI members do not get on the 24th is the truth.

    July 21, 2021 at 9:55 AM
  • Novartis

    You know what, I found one hidden easter egg here:

    “When our comms doesn’t crash don’t crash they’re actually pretty fun.”

    -PGL-

    So, even your comms crash eh? So if just your comms does crashing, why you hope that Eve server won’t be able to crash at *cough* M2 *cough*?

    If your comms crash, why not search a better way eh?

    July 21, 2021 at 10:18 AM
  • chimpy

    Logically, and I’m gonna have to walk that back real soon, there’s only two real war ending options. Shit or get off the pot. Supers into 1DQ for M2- part 3 or run like fuck and get as far away from the angry bees while they are busy “Test is next”ing as possible. Maybe the blue donut was PAPI checking out what it would be like to move over to Serenity. It’s the only place they could go to be safe from Goons. PAPI simply can’t afford an attempt on 1DQ, they are running low on pilot engagement & morale, US tz players with the loss of Sinners etc.. , material ( Villy admitted that without the TTC income PAPI couldn’t have continued at one point ), and leadership. To lose a 1DQ titan fight and hand Goons pretty much eternal domination over Eve would be too humiliating even for the PAPI leadership circus troupe. Given PAPI is already falling apart it’s getting off the pot time before they fall in. And this is where I walk the word logically back and option three rears its ugly clown head. Declare the war over and that PAPI won. It will be a tale so tall Baron Munchausen would too ashamed to tell it. Goalposts will be fired from railguns at near relativistic speeds. Reality will be so badly distorted wormholes will instantaneously appear in real space. Shellshocked PAPI grunts in their trenches will stare uncomprehendingly at the news of their glorious victory while the intensity of the barrage around them intensifies. It will be one of those Orwell moments where every PAPI member will celebrate the new doublespeak of victory over the Goons even as the Goons burst out like a biblical plague and set upon the land. “But we won” they will say with their last breath.
    Ohh and the PAPI clown school at the top will watch some currently popular fantasy or science fiction show du jour and move on to roleplaying that, until another one they likes comes along. Lokis to start maybe? I’m surprised they havn’t renamed PAPI to the TVA already……

    July 21, 2021 at 10:23 AM
    • Gray Doc chimpy

      Kudos on the Munchhausen allusion.

      July 21, 2021 at 10:56 AM
    • Jeet_Kundo chimpy

      Eternal dominion over Eve

      This is the line that gets me the most, and why I think it’s absurd projection on their end when it comes to pairing words with behavior: PAPI has achieved eternal dominion, IF, they don’t fall apart with the current state of affairs. We’re just one group. Could we have such a thing? Maybe, we’re cohesive enough to have it. Will we? No, people will leave from boredom as they did in the era between wars. The largest factor is this: Do we even want that? No. Fuck no. If we were seated in such a position before that apparently prompted this war, why didn’t we have 90% of null under our banner? Because we don’t want that, it’s a pain in the ass, it stifles competition, it makes the game boring. They’re fighting a boogeyman of their own creation.

      July 21, 2021 at 8:17 PM
      • chimpy Jeet_Kundo

        OK very fair point. The Mittani has stated several times he doesn’t want to rule the galaxy, he hates pubbies, I can think of nothing that would piss him off more than being in charge of the pubbies. Maybe PAPI should have tried that from the start? I think it would have had much more chance of getting Mittens to quit Eve. As you say both he and the Goons are not stupid enough to want this blue donut, bluer and rounder than Serenity’s. It is bad for the game. With “eternal dominnation” I meant the titan numbers sufficient, especally now they cost so much more, to all but guarantee that in a future fight when the rest of the server is against you to still survive and persist through an attempt to exterminate you as a group. To be one of the biggest fish in the pond. To be well able to look after yourself. As PAPI crumbles and this war becomes PAPI running away in full retreat screaming “we won, we won” no one can look at the Goons and think of them as a soft target, easy pickings. So yep eternal domination was a bad choice of words, but it rolls off the tongue much easier than “a force within Eve that has the leadership, structure, systems, moral, loyalty to be almost unassailable”. It feels very much like Goon titan numbers and everyone else’s combined titan numbers are in the same ballpark. As PAPI continues to splinter and fall apart that leaves The Imperium in a very good place. “Domination” from a strength point of view but not from an implied intent point of view.

        July 21, 2021 at 9:23 PM
        • Jeet_Kundo chimpy

          I’m not badgering you over the choice of words because they’ve all implied it in one way or another that we’re some existential threat to long-term survival of null, biding time to take it all for ourselves. We’ll be impenetrable should the scenario we’re talking about actually happen, until caps become worthwhile to build again. As we saw in glassing Tribute: we had every opportunity to take and keep it all as spoils of war – we didn’t, we didn’t want it

          July 23, 2021 at 8:03 AM
          • chimpy Jeet_Kundo

            Yeah the Goons make a great bogeyman for Eve, especially with The Mittani at the top. And bogeymen make a great excuse for all sorts of stupid shit like the largest blue donut in the history of video gaming. It’s really bad for the game, and they think they are saviours for doing it. Morons. Every story needs a villain, and the Goons fit that purpose for many. It makes the story more exciting, the hurdle that has to be overcome, something to fight for. That they want to exterminate Goons from the game shows a deep lack of understanding of what is and is not good for the game. Added to the blue donut it displays concrete proof of lack of basic logic and comprehension writ large. The way they’ve conducted the war and the mistakes they’ve made and keep making is just the cherry on top. I can’t wait for this big annoucement. I hope they grow a pair and take supers into 1DQ, but in all likelihood the annoucment is going to be incredibly stupid as part of their never ending clown act.

            July 23, 2021 at 2:02 PM
  • Guilford Australis

    Any time Noraus and PGL are hyping something, we all understand it’s going to be something stupid that will end in humiliating failure.

    July 21, 2021 at 10:34 AM
  • FRT announced that they would be setting up their own competitor to the TTC as part of their alliance meeting because they are annoyed that PH, TEST, and the Imperium excluded them from the agreement. Do PH and TEST kick the Imperium and invite FRT hoping that FRT’s proximity to Perimeter will help them defend it? Or does FRT’s challenge make PH and TEST realize that FRT has been the one alliance that has been really winning the war so far?

    July 21, 2021 at 1:00 PM
    • William Doe Wilhelm Arcturus

      I’m sure at the very least PH knows FRT has been the biggest winner for the amount of resources and manpower invested in the war so far, TEST not so much as most of them (especially leadership) are a bunch of dimwits. Though I really doubt PanFam as a whole wouldn’t do anything to cross their buddies in FRT.

      From what I gathered, the arrangement is that FRT’s moving to lowsec to put up their branch of the TTC to replace the thing Snuffed Out killed not that long ago. It’s a good question whether or not Goons will finally be kicked out of the TTT agreement or not, if they do then it gives Goons an excuse to start blasting TTT.

      July 21, 2021 at 10:59 PM
  • kwnyupstate .

    It will be a huge disappointment for PAPI unless it is anything other than they will finally attack 1DQ.
    If they think they can hype it up this much and say anything other than that they are absolutely clueless.
    So I hope they will attack finally and lose much more than they could ever afford.

    July 21, 2021 at 4:46 PM
  • Garreth Vlox

    “goons have finally come ut of their holes”

    says the guy hiding in his stager all day on tether… Tapi in general and TEST specifically at this point couldn’t look worse if they tried too.

    July 21, 2021 at 6:08 PM
    • I think he must’ve meant that he has goons coming out of his holes.

      July 23, 2021 at 6:58 AM
  • Sirhan Blixt

    Everyone in PAPI gets an ice cream sandwich.

    July 21, 2021 at 6:56 PM
    • Guilford Australis Sirhan Blixt

      The catch is that members pay for the treat up front but will in theory be reimbursed with Gobloons at some later (very distant) date. And then they can (in theory) exchange those Gobloons at a much later time for a credit to reimburse their ice cream sandwich.

      July 21, 2021 at 9:40 PM
  • kwnyupstate .

    Choco rations going up to 25 grams per week.

    July 22, 2021 at 12:42 AM
  • WhiteHalo117

    I’m ready to read about the goal post shifting on the 24th!

    July 22, 2021 at 3:03 AM
  • Ashimame

    As a Brave Newbie who joined just before the war kicked off, the first couple of months — coinciding with the COVID lockdowns — produced a lot of fun content for me as I ventured into nullsec for the first time. I got to participate in a bunch of fights the likes of which I’d only read about before. A year on though? I don’t understand why we are still fighting this war.

    One of the things I’ve admired most about EVE (from the sidelines often enough) are the epic betrayals that have taken place. I’d really like to see one of the major pieces of PAPI defect over to the Imperium and just hit PAPI hard from behind-the-lines. Full-scale war based on an epic betrayal.

    July 22, 2021 at 2:58 PM
    • Guilford Australis Ashimame

      My theory early in the war was that TEST was planning to do just that – approach PanFam with a clever false-flag ploy to attack The Imperium, then once they were stuck in Delve renew standings with The Imperium to turn on them and crush them.

      Alas, TEST leadership is not nearly as clever as I had hoped, and it turned out that this whole thing really was just Vily’s stupid vanity project all along.

      July 22, 2021 at 4:16 PM
    • Moomin Amatin Ashimame

      Become the change you want to see.

      July 22, 2021 at 4:43 PM
    • Garreth Vlox Ashimame

      ” I don’t understand why we are still fighting this war.”

      Because you haven’t voted with your feet and left

      July 22, 2021 at 6:43 PM
    • Xelistren Ashimame

      That will happen yet. I can see several sapi alliances breaking away soon at current trend.

      July 23, 2021 at 1:02 AM
  • Calling it now: they’re putting another staging Keepstar in T5ZI, but several thousand km closer to the 1DQ gate.

    July 23, 2021 at 7:00 AM
    • kwnyupstate . Ganthrithor

      It will be anything other than an announcement they will attack 1DQ finally.

      July 23, 2021 at 7:25 PM